Will There Be More Tragedies Like The Marshall Fire?
What was the Marshall Fire?
On December 30, 2021, the Marshall Fire, a prairie grass wildfire in Boulder County destroyed or damaged almost 1,300 homes and businesses. The severity of the fire, which spread from unincorporated Boulder County to the towns of Superior and Louisville, was largely due to gusting winds of up to 100 miles per hour. Before it was extinguished, the fire burned 6,000 acres and forced 35,000 people to evacuate. Thousands of people continue to be displaced, and the cleanup and rebuilding process is likely to last years. The fire was the most damaging in terms of structures destroyed in state history, but what was most shocking was the fact it happened not during the heat of summer, but at the end of December.
December of 2021 was an extremely warm month for Colorado. Our average statewide temperature was more than 7 degrees warmer than the historic monthly average for December. December was also dry, particularly for the urban corridor and Eastern Plains. Although average statewide precipitation from October through December 2021 was only 0.3 inches less than the long-term average for the same period, Boulder County received only 0.66 inches of precipitation in the last three months of the year, which was 2.64 inches less than the long-term average.
Another factor at play in the severity of the damage caused by the Marshall Fire is residential and commercial property development in the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI). WUI refers to the areas where urban development occurs in proximity to natural areas and vegetative fuels with little clearance. The map below shows the area within the Marshall Fire boundary located in the WUI. In total, 2,745 acres burned in the boundary were in the WUI.
With the area of the WUI in Colorado topping more than 3.2 million acres, it’s possible more communities will have to contend with fires similar to the Marshall Fire in the future.
Climate change is projected to exacerbate warm and dry conditions across Colorado in the years to come. Most places will experience more warm days and precipitation is projected to decrease in most parts of the state, which will lead to drier vegetation and more susceptibility to burning.
Last year, CFI released climate research that looked at how different climate scenarios could play out for Colorado. Under a business-as usual-emission scenario, some areas of the state will experience more than 100 days with temperatures higher than historic high temperatures, and many places will experience 50-60 percent less precipitation by 2050. These conditions will put more communities at risk.
Climate projections show that limiting increases in emissions will significantly limit the effects of climate change compared to business-as-usual practices. That makes it essential to take action now to avoid potentially irreversible damage to our ecosystems, which will have a catastrophic effect on Coloradans and our economy.
Failing to act on climate change will create significant costs for Colorado: In 2020 alone, Colorado suffered $1.7 billion in costs from wildfires and drought. Without significant emission reductions, these costs are expected to increase over the next few decades.
The economic costs will be great, but the human costs will be even greater. With more extreme heat and ozone pollution, it will be Coloradans with respiratory illnesses, people who work outdoors, young children, and older people who will all be disproportionately affected by health problems caused by climate change.
Colorado and the country must do more to mitigate these issues by passing policies designed to curb emissions, create more resilient communities, and invest in the health and well-being of the people who make up our economy.
