Ensuring a Complete Count: The 2020 Census

By: Esther Turcios and Abbey Pizel

A complete and accurate 2020 census count matters

The US Constitution requires the federal government to conduct a census every ten years in order to generate an accurate count of all persons living in the United States, Puerto Rico, and all other US territories. A precise count is vital to guaranteeing each state receives the appropriate number of seats in the House of Representatives, it influences how states draw their legislative districts, and, equally as important, it ensures communities across the country receive proper funding for a host of important services families and local economies rely on. Unfortunately, the upcoming 2020 census is in jeopardy as inadequate funding and an unprecedented and untested citizenship question threaten participation, and an accurate count of all people – particularly residents in hard-to-count communities.

With as much as $600 billion in federal funding at stake, several states have appropriated funds and created Complete Count Committees (CCC) to ensure an accurate count in 2020. Trusted CCCs are volunteer groups created by state and local governments, community groups, and/or organizations focused on increasing awareness of and participation in the census through “trusted community messengers.” With an already difficult task of counting millions – especially hard-to-count communities including immigrants, people of color, Coloradans who earn low incomes, Native Americans, Coloradans living in rural communities, people who speak and understand limited amounts of English, and many others – the state of Colorado should invest in these trusted community groups so they can expand their outreach efforts to ensure all Coloradans are counted in 2020.

In order to ensure they can accomplish this goal, the Colorado Fiscal Institute (CFI) recommends state lawmakers invest $12 million in this year’s budget for 2020 census outreach efforts aimed at the hard-to-count population.

State funding can ensure a complete count    

A $12 million-dollar investment would allow the state to allocate resources to each of the 64 counties based on each county’s hard-to-count population (refer to Figure 2). Using Census Bureau data to determine the total hard-to-count population in the state, CFI was able to estimate the costs of doing basic, moderate, and intensive outreach for the 2020 census. Figure 1 below details the level of outreach that can be made to the approximately 1.5 million hard-to-count Coloradans at an average cost of $2 per person. The state could also reach about 147,000 Coloradans with moderate-level outreach at $25 per person, and about 73,000 Coloradans at $75 per person. Outreach needs will differ across the state depending on geographic location and the makeup of each community. To aid policymakers as they allocate resources, CFI’s analysis includes a breakdown of the dollars that can be allotted to community groups for 2020 census outreach in each county based on the share of hard-to-count residents:

In Denver County, community groups would receive $1.5 million to reach 176,155 residents. About $350,000 would go to basic outreach to the entire hard-to-count population, $440,000 would be used to follow up with moderate outreach to 17,616 people, and $661,000 would go to intensive outreach to 8,808 people.

In Adams County, community groups would receive $1 million to reach 125,792 residents. One quarter would go to basic outreach to the entire hard-to-count population, $314,000 would be used to follow up with moderate outreach to 12,579 people, and $472,000 would go to intensive outreach to 6,290 people.

In Weld County, community groups would receive $628,000 to reach 76,158 residents. Roughly $152,000 would go to basic outreach to the entire hard-to-count population, $190,00 would be used to follow up with moderate outreach to 7,616 people, and $286,000 would go to intensive outreach to 3,808 people.

In Montrose County, community groups would receive $103,000 to reach 12,535 residents. $25,000 would go to basic outreach to the entire hard-to-count population, $31,000 would be used to follow up with moderate outreach to 1,254 people, and $47,000 would go to intensive outreach to 627 people.

A complete count will help our communities thrive

For almost 230 years, the census has played a critical role in counting all people in the country, citizens and non-citizens alike, ensuring residents in each state are properly represented in Congress. However, less is known about the incredible importance of accurate census data in securing funding for everything from transportation and health care, to tools for reducing the amount of people experiencing poverty. A study by the US Department of Commerce found 132 programs used census data to distribute over $675 billion dollars to states in fiscal year 2015.[ The following sixteen programs are some of the largest and more commonly known programs that help Coloradans and residents across the country make ends meet:

From services that help struggling families put food on the table or see a doctor, like SNAP (formerly food stamps) and Medicaid, to lesser known but equally important programs like the Hazardous Waste Management State Program; Rural Business Enterprise Grants; and the Water Pollution Control, State, Interstate, and Tribal Program, the census funds a variety of public investments that help build the kind of communities Coloradans of all races and backgrounds want to call home. In fiscal year 2015, Colorado received more than $8 billion in census-based federal funds for these and many other important public services.

$12 million will provide a big return on investment due to the major and long-lasting effect census-based services have on the individuals and families who rely on them, and the stabilizing effect those same services have on the state’s economy—particularly during recessions and economic downturns. If the state does not invest in outreach efforts, hard-to-count communities will be underrepresented, hundreds of thousands of Coloradans may have a tougher time making ends meet, and local economies will suffer.

Of additional interest to those who want to ensure an accurate and complete count: because Colorado has joined 15 other states by taking action to count all citizens – especially hard-to-count communities – there are opportunities to pitch in. Colorado’s Complete Count Campaign is currently seeking volunteers to support the 2020 census.

Methodology

Colorado’s hard-to-count population was calculated by determining the percent of people in each county who did not participate in the 2010 Census. That percent was multiplied by the total population of each county to estimate the number of hard-to-count Coloradans in 2017. These estimates were used as a baseline to project how much Colorado needs to invest in outreach in order to have a full and accurate count of all Coloradans in the 2020 Census.

To estimate the average per-person outreach cost for hard-to-count communities in Colorado, we use a study completed by the New York Fiscal Policy Institute (FPI) as a proxy.5 In the study, FPI utilized a survey of community groups expecting to do outreach for the 2020 Census to estimate the per-person outreach costs for hard-to-count communities. The survey returned 32 responses. The responses were divided into three groups based on the level of outreach and the cost per person:  

• Basic Outreach: $2 per hard-to-count person
• Moderate Outreach: $25 per hard-to-count person
• Intensive Outreach: $75 per hard-to-count person

Of the 32 responses, twelve groups said they would use basic outreach meaning some level of broad outreach like public forums or providing information to individuals who come into an office. At the basic level, these groups proposed spending $10,000 and to reach 10,000 people, another said $15,000 and 8,500 people, and one said $78,000 and 12,000 people. This results in an average cost of $2 per hard-to-count person for basic outreach. 

Eleven groups said they would use moderate outreach that includes both broad outreach like public forums as well as specific outreach like in-person discussions. At this level of outreach, groups estimated spending $120,000 to reach 10,000 people, $500,000 to reach 20,000 people, or $20,000 to reach 500 people. This results in an average cost of $25 per hard-to-count person for moderate outreach.  

Nine groups would employ intensive outreach. This type of outreach is focused on communities that have the largest barriers to being counted. Outreach at this level can include in-depth discussions to explain the process, assistance for people who do not have access to the internet or who are not familiar with computerized forms, in-language discussions for families with limited English, and outreach to people and communities experiencing homelessness. With this type of intensive outreach, groups estimated spending $75,000 to reach 1,500 people, $250,000 to reach 5,000 people, and $100,000 to reach 1,000 people. This results in an average cost of $75 per hard-to-count person for intensive outreach. Because of cost variations and limited resources, community groups are not expected to employ each level of outreach to all of the hard-to-count populations. For example, intensive outreach is a substantially larger task for community groups and resources for this type of outreach would need to be specific and targeted. Following the structure outlined in FPI’s study, estimates assume that all of Colorado’s hard-to-count population, or 1.5 million people, will receive at least a basic level of outreach. Ten percent, or 147,000 people, will receive moderate outreach. Five percent, or 73,000 people, will receive intensive outreach.

The Colorado Fiscal Institute used these estimates to calculate the total amount Colorado should invest for 2020 Census outreach to hard-to-count communities.

Proposed State Funding for Census 2020 Outreach by County

Figure 2: Outreach cost estimates derived from New York Fiscal Policy Institute census study.

For printable verison, click here.

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