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Extraordinary Indeed: What the Heck Just Happened?!

Posted November 21, 2023 by Caroline Nutter

On November 9th, Governor Polis called a special session to address property tax relief, the high cost of living, and support for working families and their children. In his call, he included property tax relief, local government backfill, TABOR refund mechanisms, rental assistance, the Earned Income Tax Credit, and the Summer EBT program as policies to be crafted and debated during the special session. 

The Colorado Fiscal Institute (CFI) and the Helping Colorado Families Get Ahead (HCFGA) Coalition jumped at the opportunity to advocate for longtime policy priorities, increasing the EITC and flattening TABOR rebates. And our hard work paid off — as of Monday, November 20th, bills to increase the state EITC (HB23B-1002) and give everyone identical TABOR rebates (SB23B-003) are on their way to the Governor’s desk to be signed into law.

HB23B-1002 will increase the state match of the federal EITC from 25% to 50% for tax year 2023 (to be received in 2024) and SB23B-003 will direct TABOR refunds to be distributed through a flat amount to qualifying taxpayers, instead of through the six-tier sales tax refund mechanism, for tax year 2023. The EITC expansion increased the average credit from $500 to $1,000, and the rebate flattening increased the refund for Coloradans making under $100,000 by as much as $450. The average EITC filer who makes under $50,000 could receive as much as an extra $950 with their combined increased credit and rebate. CFI led the advocacy charge on both of these critical bills.

Rental and food assistance expansions passed as well. Housing advocates and sponsors pushed hard for a $30 million grant program to provide emergency rental assistance to renters with less than 80% Area Median Income (AMI) through HB23B-1001 that passed out of the Senate on Monday morning. Summer Electronic Benefits Transfer (EBT) also passed, via  SB23B-002. The bill provides food benefits to low-income student households over the summer, when students are not in school. 

SB23B-001 provided property tax relief by lowering the statewide assessment rate from 6.765% to 6.7% and increasing the valuation exemption from $15,000 to $50,000 for the 2023 property tax year. This means that homeowners in Colorado will see a lower property tax bill by taking $50,000 off the assessed value of their home, and lowering the overall portion of their home’s value that is taxable. The average Colorado homeowner will save $215 on their property tax bill. 

The Special Session was quick and high-stakes — many of the bills that passed had to be done before the end of the year to be able to apply to the 2023 tax year and provide immediate relief. Property owners, EITC recipients, and TABOR rebate recipients will see these changes as early as January 2024, when they can file their 2023 taxes. 

CFI is grateful to our sponsors, fellow advocates, and staff. This Special Session was a unique opportunity, one that our legislative champions, partners, ambassadors, and supporters were ready to seize. CFI is excited to continue this work alongside them when legislators reconvene in January for the 2024 session.

 

Watch our 2-minute video for further explanations of our priority bills!

 

 

2023 November Session Fact Sheets:

SB23B-003 Identical TABOR Refund Testimony

HB23B-1002 Fact Sheet

EITC Recipients by House District

EITC Recipients by Senate District

Five Takeaways from the Governor’s Proposed Budget Release

Posted November 6, 2023 by Colorado Fiscal Institute

Governor Polis released his proposed budget for 2024 on November 1st. The legislature can pick and choose which of the Governor’s suggestions they accept. They could choose to throw out the budget entirely, but the legislature’s budget usually resembles the Governor’s relatively closely, so it serves as an indication of policy and budgetary priorities for the upcoming legislative session. Governor Polis will present his budget plan later in the month, on the 16th. Here are our top five takeaways from the release…

Creative Budget Moves to Address Affordable Housing

The budget proposes several creative ways to fund the  “More Housing Now” initiative. The biggest change is a restructuring of the Housing Development Grant Fund (HDGF) to a tax credit. The HDGF provides funding through a competitive grant program for the acquisition, rehabilitation, and new construction of affordable housing in Colorado. By restructuring part of the HDGF into tax credits, instead of grants, the Governor would be able to use the TABOR surplus to pay for the credits, and allow further investments from the freed up budget space into housing — to the score of $35 million. The Governor’s budget also uses marijuana dollars to support accessory dwelling unit (ADU) construction. The budget request would move $18 million of Marijuana Tax Cash Fund (MTCF) money to subsidize local fees associated with ADU construction. The MTCF is funded in part by the 15% special sales tax on recreational marijuana and the 2.9% sales tax on medical marijuana. 

Help with Transit-Oriented Upfront Costs

One of the Polis Administration’s goals is to increase transit-oriented development — housing units close to job centers and high-quality transit corridors. The Governor’s budget request invests $65 million into upfront pre-construction costs regarding water and sewer access, as well as boosts Colorado’s Affordable Housing Tax Credit in order to increase affordable housing creation near transit. The budget request would spend $16.4 million to build new workforce housing for around 50 corrections staff in the Buena Vista area.

Free Transit Fares, Cracking Down on Emission Standards, and Electrifying Energy Use

The budget requests $14 million to maintain the Zero Fare for Better Air program and Zero Fare for Youth program. It requests $4.5 million to increase enforcement and compliance efforts against environmental risks in vulnerable communities. The budget also increases compliance and permitting staff to enforce refinery regulation, oil and gas emission standards, and conduct analyses of cumulative impacts in disproportionately impacted communities. There’s $10 million for a refundable income tax credit to implement sustainable agricultural practices, and money for rural communities’ electric grids and rebates for households to electrify their homes. 

Finally Paying Down the School Funding Shortfall (Budget Stabilization Factor) to Zero

The proposed budget allows schools to catch up to inflation and student growth, something Colorado hasn’t been doing since 2009. This annual shortfall—called the budget stabilization factor—represents the difference between actual school funding and the minimum voters set with Amendment 23 in 2000. That annual gap reached the billions of dollars in several of the last 14 years. That shortfall has been shrinking in the past two years, going from $321 million last year to $141 million this year. If the Budget Stabilization Factor is at zero, that means Colorado is fully funding schools at Amendment 23 levels. Recent growth in property taxes, with which comes increased local dollars to fund schools, has certainly helped the state fully fund its K-12. Depending on what happens at the ballot in the next couple years, property tax cuts could impact the local dollars that fund schools. The proposed budget suggests taxing short-term rental properties at a higher rate as another revenue option should the state need it.

Other Budget Maneuvers 

For years, Colorado’s budget has had a meager General Fund reserve, which is a savings cushion so legislators don’t have to make cuts when the economy slows down. The proposed budget maintains a strong 15% reserve, which is enough to weather a recession without making cuts like the state did during the 2010 recession. The proposal also identified $32 million in cigarette and gaming money that is being counted toward TABOR’s revenue limit. The proposed budget argues this money is collected for local governments and therefore shouldn’t be counted as money subject to the state’s TABOR cap. If it were not subject to the revenue cap, it would leave 32 million more General Fund dollars to spend. 

Severance tax is also subject to the state’s TABOR cap, and record high collections ($374 million last year) means bigger TABOR rebates paid from the General Fund. Because severance tax doesn’t go to the General Fund, but does count toward the TABOR cap, it impacts the available cash in the General Fund. The proposed budget asks to transfer $50 million of severance tax collections to the General Fund to boost spending, since the increased revenue is impacting the General Fund regardless.

Prosperity is a Policy Choice

Posted October 24, 2023 by Sophie Mariam

The COVID pandemic and Colorado’s economic recovery may appear to be in the rear view mirror, but an uneven recovery and end to many critical federal supports for working families has left some of our state’s children and families behind.

Our federal and state policy response to the pandemic provides a key lesson for Colorado’s elected officials: poverty is a policy choice. We must choose to continue to use policy tools like refundable tax credits to give families the tools they need to thrive. 

In particular, elected leaders can learn from the expansion of the federal Child Tax Credit (CTC) and the historic reduction in child poverty that resulted. The fact that child poverty fell to its lowest level on record in 2021, despite the impact of the pandemic, is a testament to the power of this policy. 

We must build our economy from the middle out and the bottom up; low-income and middle class families drive Colorado’s economy, and the government’s job is to provide working families with tools and resources like the CTC to ensure these families have the opportunity to thrive.

Federal lawmakers have failed to rise to that challenge, and have chosen to let common sense policies like the improvements to the CTC lapse- which is already having real, harmful impacts across Colorado and across the nation. But Colorado has recently implemented its own reforms to ensure this program benefits the families who need it most, and now is the time to hold steady on those commitments. 

Child Poverty “Bounced Back” Up after the CTC Expansion Led to a Historic Reduction

In 2022, the overall national poverty rate rose by the largest amount on record in more than 50 years, and national child poverty rates doubled from the year prior, according to new US Census data released in September. Child poverty skyrocketed across the nation from a historic low of 5.2% in 2021 to 12.4% in 2022. This was due almost entirely to the expiration of pandemic policy measures like the CTC enhancements. Congress chose to force 2.1 million kids into the hardship and trauma of living in poverty in America.

Pandemic policies helped ease economic pressures and lift people out of poverty right here in Colorado, and the American Rescue Plan’s expanded Child Tax Credit has been credited in lifting children out of poverty in states across the nation. One new analysis from Brookings found that the CTC caused substantial reductions in poverty in varying state economic contexts; the report found that even high cost of living and low poverty states, such as Colorado, experienced a 40% reduction in child poverty. 

The Case in Colorado: Aiming to be the Exception, Not the Rule

Between 2019 and 2021, the number of children in poverty in Colorado climbed by 10,00. However, by 2022, the state was back down to its initial child poverty rate of 11%. Relative to the national trend, Colorado kept its child poverty rate fairly steady over the pandemic. Colorado also managed well through the recovery, avoiding the national trend of a drop and ensuing 2022 spike. 

Still, in the richest nation on earth, and a state with a strong economy and an abundance of economic opportunity to be shared, even going back to the status quo is unacceptable. It is unacceptable that in 2022, 133,463 children in our state worry about having a stable roof over their head, or enough food on their table. Moreover, the overall rate of child poverty across the state masks huge disparities.

Persistent inequities in available resources to communities across the state leave children of color behind. Black, Latine, and Native American children and families were 1.5, 2, and 3 times more likely to experience poverty in 2022 than white families in Colorado, with nearly 30% of Native households earning incomes at or under the poverty line last year. 

Child poverty rates are also much higher in certain regions in the state. For example, Costilla county’s child poverty rate was 36% in 2022. That is one in three children across the county. Policy choices produce and prolong these discrepancies and hold our state back from reaching its full potential for shared economic growth and thriving communities. 

As more recent 2023 data comes in, Colorado may see a spike once again as the federal CTC expansion has sunset.

However, this data may support the claim that Colorado was able to counter the harms of federal inaction to extend the CTC through expanding state-level tax credits like the EITC early in the pandemic and expanding the CTC this past session. 

Colorado is on track to be an exception to this concerning national trend, and can continue to be a leader in ensuring prosperity and opportunity for all children by sustaining these critical policies. Prosperity, too, is a policy choice. And we should make the right choice here in Colorado.

Proposition HH Explained – 2 Videos

Posted October 20, 2023 by Colorado Fiscal Institute

Coloradans will vote on Proposition HH this November to address large increases in their property taxes. Prop HH cuts property taxes in a responsible way, while also preserving funding for the critical government services that rely on property tax revenue, like our schools. Watch our 2 videos to learn how the measure would affect property taxes, TABOR rebate, and what it means for you and your community!

Proposition HH Explained

Proposition HH: Property Tax Cuts and TABOR Rebates

Colorado Immigration Policies: 2023 Convening

Posted October 9, 2023 by Colorado Fiscal Institute
In solidarity with our partners and immigration rights advocates across the state, Colorado Fiscal Institute uses research to advance policies that support immigrants and their families working to thrive.

Immigrants Power Colorado’s Economy

Immigrants are an essential workforce for industries across Colorado’s economy. However, immigrants face a variety of barriers that impede economic mobility and prosperity. 

Immigrants make up 10% of Colorado’s population and drive over 10% of our state’s economic output. Immigrants are essential to our communities and local economies. Thirteen percent of physicians in Colorado are immigrants, and 28% of construction workers in Colorado are immigrants. Immigrants play a crucial role in not only building homes and providing healthcare, but are also integral to Colorado’s service and transportation economies.

This infographic begins to illustrate immigrants’ impacts on our communities.


Timeline of Resistance and Community Movements

In Colorado, we have witnessed a dynamic history of triumphs and challenges in immigration policies. Despite its conservative roots and a surge in anti-immigration sentiment fueled by local politics, our state has significantly changed laws and procedures to make Colorado a safer and more inclusive place.

Thanks to the dedicated efforts of community members, advocacy leaders, political figures, and research organizations, Colorado is now leading the way in creating a welcoming environment for our immigrant community to thrive.

This timeline highlights critical milestones that have revolutionized how Colorado immigrants are welcomed and integrated into our communities. We hope this tool showcases the remarkable progress achieved and inspires the implementation of more inclusive policies in the years to come.

Yes on Prop HH: A responsible way to provide property tax relief. 

Posted September 21, 2023 by Colorado Fiscal Institute

The Colorado Fiscal Institute supports Proposition HH and its benefits to Colorado homeowners and renters.

Colorado leaders are responding to the needs of their constituents with property tax relief through Proposition HH. This is a responsible way to provide property tax relief without harming our schools and communities. With property tax savings and TABOR rebates, Proposition HH has the potential to drastically impact the economic health and well-being of your local community. 

Through Prop HH, Colorado families are set to receive over $5,000 in property tax savings and up to $10,000 in TABOR Rebates

Prop HH will have an immediate positive impact on all Coloradans’ pocketbooks, without harming schools and communities. Property tax increases have been a significant burden on Colorado families in recent years, with bills growing by an average of 40% during the past two years. Prop HH is a tool to help struggling Colorado families and individuals dealing with historic inflation. Prop HH aims to responsibly remedy the issue by providing property tax relief, while preserving funding for essential local government services, like our schools and fire protection. 

Proposition HH allows Colorado’s current revenue cap, put in place 30 years ago by TABOR, to grow by an extra 1%, and allows the state to use more of the revenue to it collects to provide relief to local governments, schools, and communities without increasing tax rates. With the proposed new revenue cap under HH, taxpayers can still expect between $300 and $1,300 in TABOR rebates each year, depending on their income. The money they don’t receive in rebates will go to schools, fire protection, and other local services to make up for reduced property taxes. This will result in more than a billion dollars going to schools per year in the future.

If Proposition HH passes, the average homeowner in Colorado will see $1,340 in property tax savings over the next three years while still receiving a projected $2,482 in TABOR refunds. Netting the property tax savings with expected reductions to state refunds over the decade, Proposition HH will result in $2,682 in net savings. That’s more money in taxpayers’ pockets.

How Will Proposition HH Benefit Taxpayers During a Recession?

In our recent report, CFI modeled two ten-year scenarios to gauge the net benefit of HH, including the foregone TABOR rebates and property tax savings. One model factors in a recession, while the other assumes no recession. 

Assuming average historical growth rates with a recession, the average taxpayer in the average valued home in Colorado would save $4,460 over the decade from Proposition HH. Colorado families can use these significant savings to improve their lives and contribute to their communities.

Act Now: Support Proposition HH 

 

Proposition HH benefits Colorado families and communities by providing considerable property tax savings and TABOR rebates. A vote in support of Proposition HH, is a vote in support of preserving critical public services and the economic health of our communities by offering homeowners and renters extra resources and the opportunity to keep more money in their pockets.

 

This November, vote for Prop HH. 

Together, we can build a strong future for Colorado and promote our communities’ economic health and well-being.

September 2023 Revenue Forecast Five: Get Primed on the Economy

Posted September 20, 2023 by Colorado Fiscal Institute

1. Resilient but slowing economy

The economy is beating expectations for the first half of 2023, but it’s not growing as fast as it was in 2022. GDP is expected to slow in 2023 and 2024 as tighter monetary policy — to fight inflation — dampens demand. It seems the Federal Reserve (the Fed) has wrangled inflation without a recession, but still there are some weaker pockets in sectors that are impacted by those interest rate hikes. There was a slight uptick in Colorado’s unemployment rate in August to 3.1%. Personal income was 5.8% higher than the year earlier. Wages and salaries are up 5.7%. This is healthy growth, but not as strong as 2022. Employment gains are slowing and nominal wage growth is slowing.

 

 

 

 

 

 

2. Very Little New Money for Next Year’s Budget

We finished last year’s budget with a 17.6% reserve. This year’s budget looks right on the money with the revenue coming in compared to the appropriations for a 15.01% reserve—just $1.5 million above the 15% statutorily required level. But next year’s budget looks like it will have very little extra money. Next year’s budget is expected to have $1.2 billion more than this year’s appropriations, but once you cover caseload growth, inflation, reserve requirements, capital construction, and controlled maintenance (which basically keep the state even) there’s only $23 million in new money. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3. TABOR Rebates Still Expected Through Forecast

TABOR rebates will be $3.57 billion in FY 2022-23—that amounts to between $586 and $1,834 per tax filer. That could change if HH passes, however, where everyone would get $898 in an identical TABOR rebate. TABOR rebates are projected to be $1.7 billion in FY 2024-25, $1.77 billion in FY 2025-26, and $2.28 billion in FY 2025-26. Under current law, that means that tax filers will receive between $250-$850 depending on their income for the next several years. Much of those historically large TABOR rebates comes from historically high corporate income taxes. The pre-pandemic corporate income tax peak was $920 million. Colorado collected $2.37 billion last fiscal year and is expecting $1.88 billion this year. Corporate profits are up across the nation. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4. Housing and Energy Prices Eating into Wages

The inflation rate in Colorado was 4.7% in July (year over year). That’s still above the target rate of 2% and above the national inflation rate. Gas prices and housing costs are driving inflation, yet we expect headline inflation to decline throughout the forecast period — though not to the 2% target. Housing makes up the largest component of the inflation metric. The shift to remote work has created a higher floor for housing prices. Households are responding to inflation by spending down savings as illustrated by the personal savings rate below the historical average of 7.5%.

 

 

 

 

 

 

5. Budgeting to the TABOR Cap Doesn’t Keep Us Even

State revenue, which is restricted by TABOR to only grow by inflation plus population, is composed of taxes and cash fund revenue. When cash funds (like severance tax revenue or transportation revenue) grow faster than anticipated, it squeezes money available in the General Fund because TABOR rebates are paid from the General Fund. In addition, the costs for the government will continue to rise faster than the consumer price index — the measure used to grow the TABOR cap. Prices on things the government buys tend to grow faster than on things the average consumer buys. By restricting the government to only grow by a consumer measure of inflation, the state loses in real terms: next year’s budget will have basically no money for new community investments

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Will Hot Labor Summer Last Forever? Four Takeaways from the Current Labor Movement 

Posted September 4, 2023 by Sophie Mariam

The post-pandemic labor market, which forced employers to step up their game to attract workers, won’t last forever. What goes up may very well come back down. The time to lock down gains for low wage workers is now. Policies like local minimum wage boosts, better wage theft enforcement regimes, and strong worker protections can ensure that rising inflation won’t push us back into the status quo: a labor market stacked in favor of big corporations and against the interest of Colorado’s working families.

  1. Low-wage workers have seen real wage gains.

An upcoming CFI report finds that Colorado workers earning low wages, especially younger and non-college educated workers, have indeed seen substantial real wage gains – even during a time of historic inflation. The wages of the bottom are up 30 percent in real terms since 2012, with most of that growth in the last 5 years. These gains are a step in the right direction, but there’s still work to be done.

  1. Workers’ gains are largely the result of temporary policy.

Many of the wins over the last 3 years for workers came from the extra leverage they received as a result of fiscal stimulus, child tax credits, bulked-up unemployment insurance, and protection from evictions. Many of these policies were one-time large federal spending bills, meaning things like the expanded federal Child Tax Credit – which gave working families cash in hand to stay afloat – have come and gone.

While prominent national labor economist, Arindrajit Dube contends “there are good reasons to think that at least a chunk of the changes that we’ve seen in the low-wage labor market will prove lasting,” he also raises that workers may lose this post-pandemic leverage if companies start cutting jobs. 

And in Colorado, this may very well be a salient threat; job growth is on a slowing trajectory. Further, anti-competitive tactics threaten to erase gains for workers and harm consumers, meaning a swift end to these meager gains. Strong labor standards, such as a higher minimum wage and robust enforcement of existing laws, can prevent workers from facing economic hardship when the labor market inevitably weakens.

  1. Corporate greed: from big gig to big grocery.

The elusive ~$25 billion Kroger-Albertsons merger not only poses a distinct threat to the ability of over 85 million households to afford their groceries, but the proposed consolidation is also estimated to produce mass layoffs, harm Colorado’s farmers and ranchers, and suppress already-low wages for grocery store workers. 

In a major loss for Southwest Airlines employees and worker justice advocates, the company reached a settlement with the state over the summer allowing the company to avoid 90 percent of what would’ve been the largest fine ever issued by the state of Colorado for labor law violations. Advocates worry this is indicative of how the state will handle future labor violations.

CFI has highlighted the true economic costs of allowing exploitative ride-share and delivery corporations to hide behind their algorithms and claims of flexible work. Not only do workers earn sub-minimum wage, but “big gig” companies are able to skirt transparency or accountability to exploit riders and drivers alike.

 

  1. The guiding light: new worker protections are coming into effect.

A major bright side: updates to workers’ rights policy in Colorado are coming into effect. One of these is the Protecting Opportunities and Workers’ Rights Act, which will improve the standard for workplace harassment to move the needle towards securing true dignity and safety for all workers across the state. Hot labor summer also brought the expansion of our state’s paid sick leave law, and free speech protections for public employees who speak out for better working conditions. 

Another promising development at the city level: new laws in Denver should help ensure stolen and underpaid labor is a thing of the past. Denver Labor recovered more than $1 million for underpaid workers, which already exceeded previous annual records, and in the first half of 2023 (as of August 4th, 2023), $1,479,453 in stolen wages has already been recovered for employees across Denver. Other localities might see fit to follow suit. 

Localities across the state are noodling with minimum wage boosts, and Denver’s promising results indicate that generous, scheduled increases yield strong economic benefits. CFI’s recent blog highlighted three metrics in which Denver’s economy outpaced the rest of the state since raising the minimum wage.

So now what? 

Locking down these hard-earned gains for low wage workers will require intentional policy choices, and a continued movement towards ensuring a voice at the table for working people. When the working people who keep our economy in motion suffer, the state’s economy pays the price.

 

Called to Action?

Minimum Wage:

If you live in Boulder County, email your elected officials to express your support for raising the wage:

https://bit.ly/BoulderCountyLivingWage

Sign the petition to demand $25 an hour by 2028:

https://actionnetwork.org/petitions/boulderminimumwage/

Stop the merger:

Have we convinced you the Kroger-Albertsons merger is bad news for consumers, workers, and economic competitiveness alike? Let the Federal Trade Commission know here:

https://actionnetwork.org/letters/tell-the-federal-trade-commission-stop-the-kroger-albertsons-mega-merger-now?source=NoGroceryMerger.org

At Odds with the Outdoor Industry

Posted August 23, 2023 by Chris Stiffler

If Colorado is to shift away from oil and gas production, we will need to fill that economic hole with an industry equally or almost equally productive. Colorado is well known for its excellent skiing, mountain climbing, biking, fishing, rafting, and camping. We beg the question: just how big is the Outdoor Recreation industry? 

Colorado’s Outdoor Recreation industry accounted for 125,244 jobs in 2021.  That’s 4.3% of total employment, putting Colorado 8th in the country for Outdoor Recreation jobs as a portion of total employment.

Colorado is above average with 2.7 percent of GDP coming from the Outdoor Recreation industry. The Outdoor Recreation industry generates $11.6 billion of the state’s GDP.  In 2021, wages and salaries paid to outdoor recreation workers in Colorado totaled $6.1 billion.

The outdoor recreation industry accounts for more than 6 times as many jobs as the oil and gas industry in Colorado.  In 2021, 125,244 people worked in the outdoor sector compared to 19,871 jobs in the oil and gas sector.

 

Jobs 2021 

Annual Wages 2021 

GDP (thousands) 2021 

Oil and Gas 

19,871 

$2,690,114,464 

$14,118,900 

Outdoor Recreation 

125,244 

$6,143,496,000 

$11,632,200 

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages  

Boating/Fishing is the nation’s largest conventional activity in Outdoor Recreation. In Colorado, however, “snow activities” is by far the largest. In the entire country, GPD related to snow activities is $5.2 billionColorado generates $1.27 billion. Ultimately, one quarter of the nation’s snow activities economy comes from Colorado.

 

Snow Activity GDP (thousands) 

Colorado 

$ 1,267,667 

Utah 

$   519,352 

California 

$   505,666 

Washington 

$   261,261 

Texas 

$   218,259 

Small towns in Colorado depend upon Outdoor Recreation Tourism. 

To scientifically investigate the impact that the outdoor industry has on the economic vitality of towns in Colorado, we would need an experiment group — in which outdoor tourism was present — and a control group — in which it wasn’t.  Three unique scenarios have provided us with such a case: the COVID pandemic, extreme wildfires, and liability issues that temporarily closed a popular hiking destination.  

We focus on three natural experiments: the COVID pandemic and the accompanying locks downs; the town of Alma, which lost tourists because a popular hiking spot in the area was closed in 2021; and the 2018 forest fires (specifically the Spring Creek Fire and the 416 Fire), which drove away tourism from the towns of La Veta and Silverton.    

Using these three natural experiments, we look at the sales tax data in towns to see what happens when they suddenly lose their outdoor tourism industry. 

What happened to Alma’s sales tax revenue when popular Fourteeners were closed for liability purposes? Using the hiker count data from Colorado Fourteeners Initiative, hikers dropped from 25,000 in 2020 to 10,000 hikers in 2021.  With the drop in hikers came a 19% drop in sales tax revenue during peak hiking season in 2021.

What happens when outdoor recreation isn’t possible because of a wildfire?  In southern Colorado near La Veta Pass, the Spring Creek Fire started in late June 2018 and would eventually burn more than 100,000 acres before it was 100 percent contained in early September. La Veta saw an 18 percent drop in retail sales during the fire compared to the year prior. During the 416 Fire The Durango & Silverton Narrow Gauge Railroad alone canceled 31,000 reservations for that June. The town of Silverton saw a 16 percent drop in retail sales during the fire. 

In many ways, the oil and gas industry and the outdoor recreation industry are similar in Colorado. In both industries, Colorado is in the top ten ranking — 8th in the employment share from outdoor recreation and 9th in share of the economy dependent upon oil and gas. Towns across Colorado are particularly dependent upon each industry.  

The difference between these two industries is outdoor recreation industry doesn’t require the cleanup and plugging of abandoned wells, nor does it create negative externalities like air pollution or lower property values, which occurs to property near oil and gas drilling sites. In addition, the outdoor recreation industry doesn’t contribute to climate change and the increasing severity of forest fires like the fossil fuel industry does. A 2023 study found that 37% of the area burned by forest fires in the western U.S. and southwest Canada since 1986 can be attributed to heat-trapping emissions from the world’s largest fossil fuel producers. Colorado has seen a huge increase in the size and damage of wildfires in recent years. The top 20 largest forest fires in Colorado’s history have all occurred since 2000.  With Colorado comprising 25% of the country’s snow activity economy, issues of climate change and reduced snowpack disproportionately impact the state.

Recent climate goals set by Congress and our own General Assembly addressing the harmful impacts the oil and gas industry has on our health, economy, and climate mean Colorado will begin to transition away from the industry. The Outdoor Recreation economy is significant in Colorado and provides an alternative, though not full replacement, for the extractive oil and gas industry. Bolstering the Outdoor Recreation industry through economic development, tax, and employment incentives can help ease the pain of shifting away from oil and gas, and towards a more environmentally sustainable economy.

5 Ways to Celebrate Colorado Day

Posted August 1, 2023 by Talia Rotella

Tuesday, August 1st marks Colorado’s 147th birthday! From our Rocky Mountains, triumphant sports teams, 300 days of sunshine, and uniquely connected communities, Colorado is beloved by those of us who call it home. 

Though it may be a bit nerdy, we at Colorado Fiscal Institute never miss a chance to explain how many of the things that make our state so worthy of celebration depend on our tax code. This includes a robust network of cultural, outdoor, and educational programming supported by our state and local governments. Here are five ways to celebrate Colorado Day this year, all funded by taxpayers across the state.

1. Check out a book from your local public library.

Public libraries in Colorado are funded primarily by local governments, meaning their funding is an appropriation of city or county property and sales tax revenue. They also received state funding in 2022 and 2023 thanks to the Colorado Library Law, which appropriated at least $4,500 each to 97% of libraries across Colorado. 

The Denver Post names 10 books by Colorado authors you can check out today!

2. Take a boat out on a local lake or reservoir.

Colorado has more than 4,000 lakes and reservoirs. Not all of them are safe or legal to boat or swim in, so make sure to do your research before showing up with a swimsuit and floaties. 

The Colorado tax code helps preserve the native ecosystems of our reservoirs and lakes by funding the Aquatic Nuisance Species Program (ANSP), which checks boats at lakes and reservoirs to ensure they do not spread ecosystem-threatening, potentially non-native species between bodies of water. Oil and natural gas producers pay severance taxes in Colorado, which are used to pay for the ANSP, other mitigation efforts, and the preservation of our natural resources, outdoor spaces, and ecosystems. Colorado Parks and Wildlife receives funding from severance taxes, as well as other increasingly important departments responsible for programs such as fire mitigation and species conservation.

Although, severance tax revenue is inherently volatile and can change from year to year due to global resource prices. Diversifying our tax base in counties that are highly dependent on severance tax revenue would ensure Coloradans are able to enjoy our outdoor spaces for years to come.

3. Visit the Denver Museum of Nature and Science.

One major source of public funding for many nonprofit educational organizations in the Denver metro area is the Science and Cultural Facilities District (SCFD). The SCFD is made up of Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas and Jefferson counties. Via the SCFD, 1 cent of every $10 in sales and use taxes (0.10%) is used to fund culturally-enriching programs, supporting over 300 organizations, including the Denver Museum of Nature and Science.

The SCFD was created by the Colorado legislature in the 1980s, and it serves as one example of our elected officials leveraging the tax code to further the economic and intellectual interests of Colorado taxpayers. In 2016 voters opted to renew the SCFD until at least 2030. For Colorado Day, CFI celebrates this use of public funds to preserve our access to various forms of knowledge and culture, a widespread value in Colorado.

Other beneficiaries of the SCFD fund include the Denver Center for the Performing Arts, Denver Art Museum, and Denver Botanic Gardens. Thanks to the SCFD, many membership organizations are also able to provide free days throughout the year. Click here for the SCFD free day calendar!

4. Walk the Pikes Peak Greenway in Colorado Springs.

The Colorado Springs TOPS sales and use tax is similar to the Science and Cultural Facilities District. Every 0.10% of sales and use taxes is used to fund the maintenance and preservation of open spaces and trails in the Colorado Springs area. Colorado Springs voters recently opted to renew the tax for the next 20 years. The program is administered by the Parks, Recreation, and Cultural Services Department. 

Thanks to TOPS, residents and visitors can walk the 16-mile Pikes Peak Greenway, which connects with various other popular and beautiful trails across Colorado Springs. A favorite of local students and dirt bikers, the Red Rocks Canyon Open Space in Colorado Springs was also purchased with money raised by the TOPS tax.

5. Go all-out for Colorado at the Colorado State Fair. (August 25th – September 4th)

The Colorado State Fair is held annually at our state fairgrounds in Pueblo. This year, the fair will feature such acts as the popular country band Lady A, comedian Gabriel Iglesias, and Pat Benatar & Neil Giraldo. The Colorado State Fair also features four days of rodeos. 

Each year, money is transferred from the Colorado General Fund (where statewide income and sales tax revenue goes) to the Department of Agriculture for use by the State Fair.  The Fair boosts Pueblo’s local economy and provides a hub for community, connecting Coloradans from across the state. In 2021, the Fair launched their master plan to modernize their facilities, expand their attractions, and make the Fair even more accessible to Colorado’s diverse populations.

Tax revenue preserves and expands the things we love.

From Denver metro, to the Western Slope, to the Eastern Plains, taxpayers across our state are responsible for much of the preservation of our cherished culture of recreation, play, and learning. At CFI, we’re celebrating Colorado’s 147th birthday by taking stock of all the things we know and love about our state, and with a deep appreciation for the taxpayers who ensure those things live on.

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