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Forecast Five: September 2019 Revenue Forecast

Posted September 20, 2019 by Chris Stiffler

By Chris Stiffler

#1 – Reduction in Colorado income tax rate set for tax year 2019

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The September revenue forecast is important because it shows how much money will be available for the rest of the current year’s budget. When the economy isn’t as strong as it has been in recent years, this could mean budget cuts might be necessary if revenue comes in below previous projections. When times are good, Colorado is different than almost every other state in the country because Article X, Section 20 of the state constitution (AKA TABOR) mandates that revenue over a certain amount must be refunded instead of using it to make additional investments or save it for a rainy day. While TABOR says money over the cap must be returned, it does not specify how, and the mechanisms are set by the legislature.

In this case, after all was said and done, the state’s obligation for rebating revenue over the TABOR revenue cap is $428.5 million for tax year 2019. Some of that money will be returned via the Homestead Property Tax Exemption for Seniors and Disabled Veterans. And while the $428 million in rebates is less than the June projection of $575 million, it will still be large enough to trigger a temporary reduction in the income tax rate from 4.63% to 4.5%.

#2 – Volatility created by the ad valorem credit for severance taxes is apparent

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The state will collect $255 million in FY2018-19 from severance tax on minerals extracted from the ground, 95% of which is oil and gas (for more on severance tax, check out our video on the subject from earlier this year). Severance tax typically has large fluctuations because of the boom and bust nature of the energy sector and That figure is projected to fall by 43% next year to $147 million. This forecast also highlights how the state’s ad valorem tax credit (which allows energy producers to claim a property tax break) increases the level of volatility. 

Because oil and gas production in Colorado was lower in 2015 and 2016, the energy producers had smaller property taxes those years, and they get a small tax credit offset to be used in later years. Since the ad valorem credit lags production by two years, that means even though 2018 is a high production year with a low Ad Valorem credit, next year producers will get a bigger tax break and the credit will offset more of the state’s severance tax collections.

#3 – Potential economic slowdown could mean we will only have enough to keep up

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Colorado’s economists are predicting a slowdown in the economy. That means slower growth in revenue collections for the General Fund, which funds K-12 education, higher education, and other important priorities. After 7.2% growth in revenue last year, the General Fund is only expected to grow by 3% this year and by 2.7% the following year. For next year’s budget (FY2020-21), the General Assembly will have $833 million more to save or spend in the General Fund than what was spent in this year’s budget. While this sounds like a lot, because Colorado is a growing state, more students, prisoners, and patients, will mean most of that new money will need to be used for ongoing expenses. If appropriations grow by the historical rate of 6 percent, the General Assembly will have about $57 million more to spend or save in next year’s budget on top of the required 7.25% reserve.

While this is more good news than bad news, it’s important to remember that the state is currently underfunding education below what the state constitution mandated in Amendment 23 by hundreds of millions of dollars a year. This deficit is known as the Budget Stabilization Factor (previously known as the Negative Factor) for K-12 education. While keeping up with inflation and population growth is good, it means we won’t have much to invest in our schools so they’re funded at the level voters expected when they passed Amendment 23 in 2000.

#4 – The growth in the state’s older population is driving the cost of funding the Homestead Property Tax Exemption

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Older Coloradans who meet certain qualifications are eligible for a tax break known as the Homestead Property Tax Exemption (read our paper from earlier this year on the inequities of the exemption if you haven’t already). The cost of this tax expenditure has three components: home value appreciation, the statewide residential assessment rate set by Gallagher, and the amount of people aged 65 and older who qualify. Since the property tax break only impacts the first $200,000 of home value, and since 94% of filers who claim the exemption have houses worth more than $200,000, the growth in housing prices doesn’t really impact the cost of the exemption. The drop in the portion of housing property subject to the residential assessment rate also lowers the cost. The number of older Coloradans is expected to grow by 4.3% over the forecast period. 

#5 – Big swings in revenue expectations since March come from federal tax code changes.

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The 2019 March revenue forecast projected a $65 million TABOR rebate this year. The June estimate saw that figure jump to $575 million. Now the actual figure came in at $428 million.  Why the big swings in projections? Much of it can be explained by changes in behavior due to the federal tax code changes that took effect in 2018. In March, economists had very little data on income tax collections for tax year 2018, so they had to make assumptions on behavior. Because the federal tax code changes expanded Colorado’s tax base, the state collected more in income tax than projected. But because TABOR prevents us from investing this increase in revenue, even during very good economic times, this doesn’t mean more money available for schools and roads, it only means bigger rebates.

Food Insecurity Likely to Rise in Colorado Under New Rule

Posted August 31, 2019 by Colorado Fiscal Institute

By Rayna Hetlage, policy analyst

Even during the best economic times, it’s still a struggle for some families to afford basic needs like putting food on the table. For people who are between jobs, experiencing a health emergency, or managing a long-term disability, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), formerly known as food stamps, is an important lifeline to nutritious food for them and their children. Even for those who are working, wages for some jobs just aren’t keeping up with the cost of food. For those who use SNAP, it can be the difference between being able to pay the bills and living in poverty.

Hundreds of thousands of Coloradans use SNAP at one time or another to help pay for food, and most of them come live in a household with at least one worker. It’s especially important for families in communities in southern and southeastern Colorado, where upwards of 30% of households in some counties participate. In addition to reducing food insecurity, almost all of the dollars used to fund SNAP end up being spent locally. This is critical during economic downturns, when food assistance helps provide a stabilizing effect for local economies. Even during the current economic expansion, with many new jobs paying low wages it means SNAP is more than just a backstop in the event of a recession.

In July, the Trump administration proposed a change to SNAP that would end Broad Based Categorical Eligibility (BBCE). BBCE came about as a result of a 1996 change in the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program (TANF), also known as basic cash assistance, that made it possible for states to offer non-cash benefits to eligible individuals and families. Families who qualify for TANF benefits are automatically eligible to get food assistance through SNAP. Currently, 43 states offer extended benefits to families who might not otherwise qualify for SNAP. Colorado is one of these states and allows individuals making up to 200% of the Federal Poverty Line (FPL) to qualify for SNAP benefits. Under the proposed changes more than 30,000 Coloradans will no longer be able to use SNAP to help pay for groceries. 

According to the US Department of Agriculture, which administers SNAP, the proposed changes will disproportionately affect a significant amount of people who rely on SNAP. This includes 13.2% of families who have someone 65 and older living with them, 12.5% of working families, and 10.1% of families and individuals with no children. 

Another rule announced In August by the Trump Administration will affect immigrant families seeking Lawful Permanent Status (LPS) who currently use SNAP, and even those who have used it in the past to avoid going hungry. This is because of changes to the guidelines for determining who is considered a “public charge.” Immigrants who are deemed to be a present or future public charge can have their LPS application or entry into the United States denied. Prior to the rule change, the two factors that were used to categorize someone as a public charge were whether or not an individual had been in long-term care at the governments’ expense and/or if they had received cash benefits from the government (including TANF and Supplemental Security Income, or SSI). 

Under the rule change, the government would penalize immigrants who make use of SNAP to afford food, Medicaid so they can see the doctor, and housing assistance (such as Section 8 housing). The new rule makes it confusing for immigrants to determine what support systems they can and cannot use and has led to many people being fearful to apply for any sort of assistance. Whether the rule goes into effect as planned or not, people going without healthcare, food, and housing for fear their applications will be denied. When our neighbors go without their basic needs being met, our entire state suffers the consequences. 

For families with children who turn to SNAP when they have trouble making ends meet, this new rule will be especially hard, and not just because they will have to find other ways to afford to feed their kids. Currently, children in households receiving SNAP automatically qualify for the free-or-reduced lunch program. When households lose their SNAP benefits, they will then have to undergo an additional application process and it is likely that some children will stop getting school breakfasts because of this additional bureaucratic barrier.

While SNAP is a critical support for families who are going through a hard time, or when the economic cycle goes from boom to bust, 

SNAP provides a boost to the economy in Colorado because recipients are spending their benefits at local grocery stores, corner stores and farmers markets. Colorado receives an average of $127 in SNAP benefits per person per month. One analysis by the Colorado Department of Human Services and a separate one by the Colorado Fiscal Institute in addition to losing out on $45 million in benefits each year, an estimated $21-$84 million in total economic activity will be lost due to the change in policy. For the counties where as many as 30% of residents turn to SNAP for food, the economic consequences will be more pronounced. 93% of the cost of SNAP goes directly to food for families.


The costs of food insecurity are not only apparent in direct spending and the economic activity generated by SNAP benefits. The health and other costs associated with families not having enough to eat are between $1.02 billion and $2.1 billion according to analysis from local anti-hunger advocates. With fewer families receiving benefits it is possible that Colorado will see these costs rise, standing in stark contrast to the goal of reducing US health care spending. We know that the majority of SNAP recipients are working adults, and because of how many work low-wage jobs, SNAP is a critical tool for lifting adults, older Coloradans, and kids out of poverty. 

This policy is one of many causing pressures on families and should be part of a broader conversation about how we pay low wage workers and the struggle to make ends meet. Throughout Colorado, families are having to make decisions between whether or not to pay their rent, maintain health insurance, put food on the table, or put gas in their car so that they can get to work. SNAP has been shown to help ease these struggles and keeps 117,000 Coloradans out of poverty, including 55,000 children, every year.

SNAP has time and time again been proven to provide important economic and health benefits for our communities. Ending BBCE could push many families who are making ends meet into poverty and punishes families and individuals that are attempting to save so they no longer need to turn to SNAP and can make ends meet on their own.

While this rule proposal is disheartening, there is still time for you to make a difference by telling the Trump administration an the USDA not to move forward with it. Please take a few minutes today to tell them why you think ending Broad Based Categorical Eligibility for SNAP would hurt people and communities across Colorado. There are several grassroots organizations like Center for American Progress, Feeding America, and Food Research Action Center who are making it easy for you to do just that.

Public comment is open until September 23rd. 


Let’s Honor Our Veterans This July 4th by Expanding These Tax Credits

Posted July 4, 2019 by Abbey Pizel

By Abbey Pizel

What do you picture when you think about the 4th of July in Colorado? Flags, Fireworks with family, cookouts on the back porch, and spending time outdoors probably all come to mind. And if you’re planning on celebrating, you won’t be alone. Millions of people in the United States will spend billions of dollars on their Independence Day celebrations this year according to WalletHub.

But in addition to celebrating the day we officially declared independence from Great Britain in 1776, many of us use the holiday as an opportunity to pay tribute to veterans, active duty military members, and their families. Like many families in the US, some veterans don’t have the resources to meet basic needs like paying the rent, putting food on the table, being able to see a doctor, and giving their children a better start in life with quality early childhood education.

This 4th of July, while we can never fully repay the debt we owe military members, veterans, and their families, Congress has an opportunity to make a difference in the lives of the thousands of people who bravely put their lives on the line and give up the things we take for granted by serving. The Working Families Tax Relief Act (WFTRA), sponsored by Senators Sherrod Brown, Richard Durbin, Ron Wyden, and Colorado’s own Michael Bennet, would give a much-needed boost to qualifying active-duty military and working veterans’ incomes by substantially expanding two federal tax credits – the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and the Child Tax Credit (CTC).

Source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

Both the EITC and the CTC have proven to be two of the most effective ways of fighting poverty. In 2017, the EITC lifted about 5.7 million people out of poverty, including about 3 million children, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. In 2017, the average EITC was $3,191 for families with children, increasing their income by more than $250 every month. For families struggling to make ends meet, an added boost like this can make a huge difference. In Colorado, about 364,000 people are lifted out of poverty because of this credit. Similarly, the CTC lifts 250,000 Colorado children out of poverty. When combined with the EITC, the CTC is an even more powerful tool for helping families build a strong future.

WFTRA would expand the EITC for families with children by roughly 25 percent. It also strengthens the credit for workers who earn low incomes whether they’re raising children or not. The act makes the CTC fully refundable, meaning families benefit from the credit whether they owe income taxes or not. That means the families who need it most are getting resources they need.

Of the over 400,000 veterans and 34,000 active-duty military members who choose to make Colorado home, nearly 20% are living paycheck to paycheck, according to analysis by the Center for American Progress. WFTRA would boot incomes for these veterans and their families, allowing them to move out of poverty. Similarly, a veteran single mother with two children earning $20,00 a year would see an increase in her EITC by about $1,460 and her Child Tax Credit by $2,210, for a combined gain of about $3,670. For these families, having to worry about how they will make rent, buy groceries, and pay for child care while they balance re-establishing themselves in civilian life or the challenges of active-duty make life even more difficult. WFTRA would help hundreds of thousands of Colorado families and individuals, including tens of thousands of veterans and active-duty military families. Providing these families with a modest boost in income helps honor the sacrifices they make. The people who serve our country and our communities, whether they serve in the military, teach our children, serve as first responders, or perform any of the other important service jobs that help make our country, states, and communities great places to live, should be able to do more than just get by. WFTRA will help them get ahead.

WFTRA lessens the challenges working veterans and military families face every day. This 4th of July, as you spend time with your family or watch a firework show, we urge you to think about the sacrifices military veterans and their families have made to allow us to enjoy this holiday. WFTRA is one way that we can show our thanks.

Forecast Five: June 2019 Revenue Estimates

Posted June 20, 2019 by Elliot Goldbaum

By Chris Stiffler

1. Significant Upswing Since March Estimates

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In March, Legislative Council economists warned the Joint Budget Committee about an upside risk to their estimates and it turns out those upside risks were real. Revenue collections for the first three quarters of Fiscal Year 2019 came in much higher than projected. Much of the unanticipated revenue comes from shifting taxpayer behavior as they respond to recent federal tax policy changes and the intensifying global trade war.

2. Big TABOR Rebates Now

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The large upward revision in revenue means much larger TABOR rebates, especially for the wealthiest people and corporations. In March, FY ’19 TABOR rebates were projected at $65 million. The June estimates set them more than half a billion dollars higher at $575 million. That rebate amount is large enough to trigger a temporary income tax rate reduction for tax year 2019. The drop in the state income tax rate from 4.63% to 4.5%, gives a tax cut, on average, of $557 to top-tier income earners and $9, on average, to the lowest tier income earners. March estimates had state revenue $70 million below the TABOR cap for FY ’20. As of this estimate, TABOR rebates for FY 20 are projected at $310 million. 

3. Even during one of the strongest economic expansions on record, Colorado still can’t pay back our schools and fund our backlog in road repairs

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Colorado’s economy is, by any typical measurement, firing on all cylinders.  Average wages are at all-time high levels with very little inflation pressure. In July, the economy will have been expanding for 10 straight years, which marks the longest economic expansion in history. Colorado’s unemployment rate stands at a very strong 3.4%. Gross General Fund revenue, which grew at a white-hot pace of 14.1% in FY ’18 has grown by a still-robust 7.9% in the current year. 

But even with ideal conditions, next year’s budget will barely keep up with caseload growth. That means there’s no room to pay back the negative factor for schools or permanent funding for the billions of dollars of backlogged road projects. The benefits of our strong economy don’t translate into budget flexibility since that revenue must be returned as TABOR rebates that benefit the wealthiest people, rather than being used for public investments that benefit everyone.

4. What does the forecast mean for Prop CC on the November ballot?

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This November, Colorado voters will be asked whether they want to allow the state to keep and invest all the revenue it collects at current tax rates instead of receiving TABOR rebates. In March, when the idea was introduced, revenue estimates projected no TABOR rebates in 2020. However, due to the stronger-than-expected growth in tax collections, rebates are now expected to be about $310 million. Prop CC voters will choose between a rebate of about $35 to $40 for the average Colorado taxpayer (which they won’t receive until 2021, when they file their 2020 taxes) and an additional $310 million dedicated to roads and transit, schools, and higher education.

5. There’s extra uncertainty in the form downside risk

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Uncertainty on a variety of levels is causing state economists to warn of significant downside risk of their estimate falling short of expectations. Corporate income tax collections are expected to decline following a Colorado Supreme Court ruling regarding separate cases involving tech companies Oracle and Agilent Technologies. Additionally, escalation of the trade war with China is still a real possibility. And we still don’t fully know how taxpayers are changing their behavior in response to the most recent federal tax code changes. 

Protecting Our National Parks is an Investment Worth Making

Posted May 26, 2019 by Ali Mickelson

By Ali Mickelson

The view from Trail Ridge Road in Rocky Mountain National Park. Photo: Jeremy Thomas

As Memorial Day approaches, many Coloradans are packing up their cars, trucks, minivans, and motorcycles for their first outdoor adventures of the summer. According to an estimate by AAA Colorado published in The Denver Post, 785,000 Coloradans will be traveling during the Memorial Day holiday, an increase of 3.75 percent from last year. And with beautiful weather expected this weekend, many of those travelers may be heading for one of Colorado’s four national parks – Rocky Mountain, Mesa Verde, Great Sand Dunes, and Black Canyon Of The Gunnison.

It’s impossible to miss the cascading gold peaks of the sand dunes or the remarkable Ancestral Puebloan heritage at Mesa Verde, but what we sometimes miss when we visit one of Colorado’s national parks on vacation is the public investment in the National Park Service (NPS) that keeps our parks clean, safe and accessible. The NPS is the reason we have roads, trails, wildlife and historic preservation, and modern-day amenities like water and electrical access in the national parks. While the first national park (Yellowstone, of course) was created by an act of Congress and signed into law by President Ulysses S. Grant all the way back in 1872, it wasn’t until President Woodrow Wilson signed a bill authorizing the NPS in 1916 that the agency was first brought into existence. Since then, the NPS has been caring for the environment, preserving history, and revitalizing communities across the country for over 100 years. And with 331 million people entering national parks across the country, including more than 7.5 million in Colorado, people across the US are getting the most out of that investment of their taxes.

Unfortunately, NPS funding has been on the chopping block in recent years. A report commissioned by Pew Charitable Trusts late last year details how increasing funding for the NPS budget in order to address the agency’s $11.6 billion park maintenance backlog would impact the country’s economy. The study found increased investment could add nearly 110,000 jobs nationally, more than 2,200 of which would be in Colorado. The analysis further concluded the economic benefits from these jobs would accrue about equally between rural and urban areas. 

Great Sand Dunes National Park. Photo: Matt Noble

In Colorado, nearly $485 million was spent by those visiting our national parks in 2017 alone, resulting in a total of over $720 million economic impact, according to Pew.  Headwaters Economics also released research on federal public lands in 2018 that found huge economic benefits of national parks and other federal public lands. Not only do they have the ability to create new economic activity like spending and jobs, but to retain people, businesses, and retirees in certain areas.

That same Headwaters research found about half of the spending, visits, jobs, and income created by national parks in Colorado is generated by Rocky Mountain National Park. However, Mesa Verde National Park is not far behind. For areas like Southwest Colorado without the same economic diversity and advantages of the Denver Metro Area, tourism created by national parks and other public lands is even more important. That makes protecting these areas critical to ensuring widespread prosperity across Colorado. All of these data show just how valuable investments in our national parks are not only for the enjoyment of our family vacations, but also for our economy and workforce.

“Mesa Verde National Park” by Jerry and Pat Donaho is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

In addition to the threat of budget cuts at the Congressional level, environmental issues could also pose an existential risk to our national parks moving forward. A report that made international headlines earlier this month found 96 percent of national parks have hazardous air quality. Hazards from human-caused pollution, along with smoke from wildfires, are creating new challenges for conservationists who seek to preserve the experience of visiting a national park for future generations. And these concerns pale in comparison to the bigger threat posed by climate change. As global temperatures rise and weather patterns begin to bring drier, hotter summers with less snow in the winter, the fragile ecosystems in Colorado protected by the National Parks Service could go away without action on our part.

Black Canyon Of The Gunnison National Park. Photo: Nick Dunlap

Thankfully, Colorado has taken steps to meet these challenges head-on. A bill to strengthen regulations on oil and gas development, frequently seen as a contributing factor in the rise of air pollution, was signed into law earlier this year, and other bills to address the problems associated with climate change and the shift away from fossil fuels are expected to be signed by Governor Polis soon. Continued efforts from policymakers, advocates, and the public will be important if we hope to stem the changes to our climate and the other issues threatening the future of our national parks.

So this Memorial Day, after you have the tent poles straightened and the marshmallows roasting, after you stop and glimpse the idyllic Colorado scenery, take a moment to remember how important our national parks are, why we need to do everything we can to protect and conserve these areas from issues like pollution and climate change, and how the National Park Service and the collective investments we make as a society create a big difference for communities across the state.

Forget the Flowers This Mother’s Day. Give Moms Tax Credits

Posted May 11, 2019 by Ali Mickelson

By Ali Mickelson

Moms hold a special place in our families and in our society. Our moms are the caregivers, the problem-solvers, the boo-boo kissers, and the boogie-man chasers. They are nurturers and providers (and maybe the kick in the butt we need every once in a while, too). Moms are the cornerstone of Colorado’s diverse communities. But there are also thousands of moms across racial and ethnic lines who give their all and still find it hard to make ends meet. For too many Colorado moms and their families, it keeps getting more and more difficult to put a roof over their families’ heads, afford health and child care, and meet other basic needs.

Fortunately, programs like the earned income tax credit (EITC) and the child tax credit (CTC) are there to help. The EITC and CTC use the tax code to help hardworking families. By employing refundable tax credits, they increase incomes for families and can lift them out of poverty altogether. Research shows the EITC and the CTC are two of the country’s leading anti-poverty programs.

The income boost provided by these credits contributes to higher earnings for families, but research has shown the EITC and CTC can also produce better health outcomes, increased academic performance for kids, and even higher earnings later in life. The EITC and CTC are continually documented as policies that change the lives of mothers and children in our communities. That’s one reason why US Senators Sherrod Brown, Michael Bennet, Dick Durbin, and Ron Wyden have introduced the Working Families Relief Act, which would expand these critical programs.

Specifically, the bill would:

  • Increase the EITC for families with children by roughly 25 percent
  • Substantially increase the EITC for workers not raising children and lower the eligibility age to 19
  • Make the full $2,000 CTC available to all low- and moderate-income families;
  • Create a new Young Child Tax Credit that would provide families with children under 6 years old an extra $1,000 per child (for a total of $3,000 per child)
  • Make the CTC equally accessible to families in Puerto Rico while also expanding Puerto Rico’s EITC

Nationwide, these improvements to the EITC and CTC would boost the financial security of 46 million households and 114 million people, including 8 million Black families, 9 million Latinx families, and 2 million Asian American families, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. The bill would also cut child poverty nationally by 28 percent, lifting 3.1 million children out of poverty and making another 7.7 million children less poor.

The Working Families Tax Relief Act would help moms in every state, including an estimated 361,000 mothers in Colorado. That translates to more than 780,000 Colorado kids.

This Mother’s Day, lets reflect on how important mothers are in our lives. Every mother deserves the support they need to care for their families and put their children on a path to success. So right after you call your mom (you have already called your mom, right? We’ll wait…) contact your members of Congress and tell them to pass the Working Families Tax Relief Act.

For What It’s Worth: CFI’s View on the 2019 Colorado Legislative Session

Posted May 6, 2019 by Elliot Goldbaum

By Colorado Fiscal Institute Staff

The first regular session of the 72nd Colorado General Assembly is in the books. As of Friday, May 3, lawmakers are finished with their legislative work, and won’t return until next January. It could just be us, but for some reason the end of session reminded us of the late 1960s. Maybe it’s the flowers coming back (flower power!), or maybe it was a particularly contentious legislative session bringing out the protesting agitator in us. Whatever the reason, the ’60s, especially the music, were on our mind.

This session wasn’t quite as tumultuous as the ’60s, but it sure felt like one of the busiest in recent memory. CFI advocated for or against over two dozen bills–and those were just the ones that were introduced. We attended or listened to hundreds of hours of committee hearings. We testified. We shared research. We added our voice to the chorus calling for evidence-based policies that help people regardless of their race or zip code. CFI and our partner organizations played a critical role in finally passing into law some of the policies we’ve spent years working to advance. Not to be outdone, a bit of late-hour suspense had some of the most important bills of the session waiting until the last few days before passing (some even underwent major changes along the way).

With the ’60s on our minds, it’s no wonder all that uncertainty had us humming Buffalo Springfield’s “For What It’s Worth.” And to paraphrase that tune, the best way we can describe the 2019 session is: something was happening at the capitol, but it what it was, wasn’t always clear.

But while the legislative process on some bills was sometimes opaque at best, one thing was always clear: We’ll never stop fighting for what we believe. From giving parents and kids an easier path to saving for college, to making sure the state invests in a complete 2020 census count, we accomplished a lot this year. But our work is far from finished. We must do more to make sure the economic prosperity Colorado is experiencing is felt by everyone, whether they’re Black, white, Latinx, Asian, Indigenous, or belong to any of the other diverse communities in the state. The Colorado way of life shouldn’t just be for the privileged few. It should be accessible to every single person in the state.

Below are the bills CFI staff worked on during the year. And not to mix eras too much, but as we look forward to the rest of 2019 and onto 2020, we hope next year will be a little less Buffalo Springfield, and a little more Johnny Nash. (’90s-themed legislative wrap-up next year, anyone?)

Outtasight: CFI’s Priority Bills

HB19-1164 – Child Tax Credit   
Sponsors: Rep. Singer; Sens. Zenzinger & Priola
House Bill 19-1164 would have funded the Colorado child tax credit. The Child Tax Credit (CTC) is the largest federal tax code provision benefiting working families with children. It’s a proven, targeted way to reduce childhood poverty and put money back in to the pockets of Colorado families. In 2013, the General Assembly passed Senate Bill 13-001 which created a refundable child tax credit between 5 and 30 percent of the federal credit for families with children 5 and under. At that time, budget concerns resulted in a financial trigger for the full implementation of the credit. In 2018, that trigger was met, and HB19-1164 would have fully funded the state child tax credit and helped hardworking families make ends meet.

CFI led a coalition of over 30 organizations in support HB19-1164, which would benefit over 200,000 Colorado families. The coalition advocated together with videos, social media graphics, and messages about the importance of a state child tax credit. The bill passed out of House Finance and made its way to House Appropriations, where it stayed until the end of the legislative session. (This is known as “dying on the calendar.”) CFI and our partners will continue to fight for meaningful policies for Colorado families, and we hope to see this bill again next year.

HB19-1184 – Demographic Notes
Sponsors: Reps. Herod & Caraveo; Sen. William

House Bill 19-1184 creates a pilot program for “demographic notes,” also known as equity impact statements. Similar to the way a fiscal note provides in-depth information to lawmakers and members of the public about the fiscal impact of legislation, demographic notes evaluate how a bill will affect Coloradans of different races, ethnicities, genders, ages, incomes and geographic areas.

CFI first spearheaded this legislation in 2017 and was excited to see it introduced again this year. After hearing feedback from a few of our community partners, we fought hard for improvements to this year’s bill, and were happy to see the addition of equity training and further expanding the demographic list for consideration.

This bill moved through the legislature with bipartisan support and was passed on the last day of the session and is awaiting the governor’s signature. We look forward to seeing the inclusion of demographic notes in next year’s legislative process.

HB 19-1280 – College Kickstarter Program
Sponsors: Speaker Becker & Rep. Herod; Maj. Leader Fenberg

House Bill 1280 creates the “College Kickstarter Program,” which is a new strategy to help more Colorado families save for college. The Kickstarter program will help parents open a college savings account (CSA) for every baby born in Colorado beginning in 2020 and will contribute $100 of seed money to each account. It will also create an optional financial literacy program run through the Treasurer’s office for parents to learn the ins and outs of saving for college and preparing for a child’s financial future.

One of CFI’s top priority bills this year, we developed the policy after research confirmed that children with even a small amount of money in a college savings account are three times more likely to go to college and four times more likely to graduate. Additionally, college savings accounts raise the hopes and aspirations for the future for both children and their parents. Programs like the College Kickstarter have been identified as a tool to help break down racial wealth barriers and increase economic asset-building. 

And though this is a policy we wholeheartedly support, the program’s funding mechanism is not ideal. The final version of the bill asks College Invest, a quasi-governmental entity that manages Colorado’s 529 accounts, to pay for each $100 College Kickstarter account incentive. Instead, CFI would have preferred setting a cap of $6,000 on the tax deduction for individuals who contribute to a 529 college saving account. Nonetheless, we are very excited about the passage of the bill and encouraged by the guardrails we advocated for being added to the bill – including an advisory committee and a legislative reporting process. Lawmakers passed the bill on April 29, and it is expected to be signed by the governor soon.

HB19-1239 – Census Outreach Grant Program
Sponsors: Reps. Tipper & Caraveo; Sens. Priola & Winter

The US census is one of the most fundamental aspects of our democracy. Every 10 years since 1790, we have conducted a count of every person living in the US. Along with determining legislative representation, the results of the census are used to determine the appropriation of federal funds to states. An accurate count of every Coloradan ensures the state receives its share of federal dollars, which are crucial to helping fund public investments like Medicaid, SNAP (formerly food stamps), and the National School Lunch Program. Unfortunately, the 2020 Census is facing many barriers including lack of funding and an untested (and potentially unconstitutional) citizenship question. These barriers will make it difficult for the state to ensure an accurate count of all Coloradans, particularly residents in “hard-to-count” communities.

CFI conducted an analysis that found the state would need to invest $12 million to ensure all Coloradans, including nearly 1.5 million hard-to-count people, participate in the census. This analysis served as the basis for House Bill 19-1239. Passed by the legislature on April 29, the bill creates a grant program in the Department of Local Affairs to distribute funds to community groups to conduct census outreach. Along with leading partners Common Cause, Together We Count, Mi Familia Vota, and the Colorado Civic Engagement Roundtable, we were able to secure the passage of the bill, and $6 million for census outreach efforts.

HB19-1245 – Vendor Credit for Affordable Housing
Sponsors: Rep. Weissman; Sens. Gonzales and Foote

Most Colorado businesses are required to collect sales tax on behalf of consumers. To help make the process easier for businesses, the law allows retailers to keep a portion of the sales tax they collect. This is called the vendor fee. House Bill 19-1245 increases the vendor credit and caps it at $1,000 per month. The changes in this bill will benefit more than 98 percent of all businesses and generates close to $50 million per year in revenue. Originally this money was earmarked for affordable housing. After some negotiation, the increased revenue was re-directed to support health care reinsurance for two years and then affordable housing every year after.  CFI has advocated for changes to the vendor credit for years, recognizing that the majority of the benefit goes to very large retailers in the state – those who have automated sales tax collections and remittal systems.  We were excited to work with Rep. Weissman on this bill to support small business and invest in sustainable funding for affordable housing. 

HB19-1317 – Senior Housing Security Act of 2019
Sponsors: Reps. Kennedy and Weissman; Sen. Court

CFI has been working with Rep. Kennedy and Rep. Weissman to address the inequities and sustainability issues in the senior homestead exemption for several years. After continued research, analysis and stakeholder input, House Bill 19-1317 was introduced with less than one month left in the session. HB19-1317 would have created an income tax credit for older Coloradans in lieu of the senior homestead exemption. The income-based, refundable credit would have been available to all seniors who make $65,000 or less per year, regardless of housing situation.

After the bill was introduced, the sponsors didn’t feel that the policy was ready to move through the process. They made a strategic decision to hear testimony on the bill and then postpone it indefinitely at the sponsor’s request on April 18. CFI testified on the bill about our recent report addressing the inequities in the current senior homestead exemption. We look forward to continuing to work on this issue over the summer and next session. 

SB 19-188 – FAMLI Act
Sponsors: Sens. Winter & Williams, Reps. Gray & Duran

One of CFI’s main priority bills in 2019 was the passage of a strong and inclusive paid family and medical leave program. After working with a diverse coalition of more than 100 organizations as well as a number of business stakeholders, Senate Bill 19-188, the Family and Medical Leave Insurance Program (FAMLI) was introduced. The initial bill, based on comprehensive data and objective research, created a state-run social insurance program that would provide up to 12 weeks of wage replacement for workers needing time off to care for themselves or a loved one when faced with a serious medical illness, to bond with a new baby, or to address needs arising from military deployment or the effects of domestic violence, stalking and sexual assault. The program was available to all workers and businesses, offered progressive wage replacement and job protection so workers who needed leave would not fear retaliation or job loss.

SB19-188 was the most lobbied bill of the 2019 legislative session with nearly 200 lobbyists, most affiliated with large corporations, working actively to kill the bill. Facing this intense pressure, a handful of Senate Democrats and the Governor’s office forced bill sponsors to amend the bill to be an implementation plan that includes a feasibility and actuarial study.

As amended, SB19-188 does not create the program that we at CFI believe, based on research and evidence, is the most equitable, adequate and affordable program for Colorado. But it keeps us on the path to such a program – one that helps ensure the lowest wage workers and those who lack access to paid leave today are not excluded.

Groovy Bills to Protect Colorado’s Health, Safety, and Environment

SB 19-181 – Protect Public Welfare Oil And Gas Operations
Sponsors: Maj. Leader Fenberg & Sen. Foote; Speaker Becker & Rep. Caraveo

Senate Bill 181 prioritizes the protection of public health, safety and the environment by updating and clarifying oil and gas regulations. The bill has several components; the highlights include:

  • Changing the mission of the Oil and Gas Conservation Commission from fostering oil and gas development to regulating oil and gas development.
  • Restructuring the make-up of the Oil and Gas Conservation Commission by reducing the number of industry members to one and requiring one member with training or substantial experience in wildlife protection; environmental protection; soil conservation or reclamation; public health; and one member who is an active agricultural producer or a royalty owner.
  • Allowing local governments more autonomy over the impacts of oil and gas development.
  • Removing the permit fee cap.
  • Increasing the threshold of forced pooling from 0% to more than 50% of the mineral interest owners.

CFI was asked to testify on the bill and speak about our analysis of the impact of oil and gas on the Colorado economy. We were glad to play a role in this important environmental policy and encouraged by the strides Colorado made towards protecting our communities. 

HB 19-1261 – Climate Action Plan to Reduce Pollution
Sponsors: Speaker Becker & Rep. Jackson; Sens. Winter & Williams

Colorado is already seeing the negative impacts of climate change in increasing wildfires, lower water levels impacting agriculture and fishing, shorter ski seasons, and poor air quality impacting public health. This session, the legislature took the bold and forward-thinking step to implement a climate policy that allows Colorado to reduce harmful pollution and protect the Colorado way of life.

House Bill 1261 outlines a framework for Colorado to reduce carbon pollution from 2005 levels at least 25 percent by 2026, 50 percent by 2030, and 90 percent by 2050.  CFI testified on the bill and was excited to see it pass in the last days of the session.

HB 19-1314 – Just Transition
Sponsors: Speaker Becker & Rep. Galindo; Sens. Winter & Donovan

With the move away from fossil fuels, many Colorado communities that are economically dependent on these industries are struggling to transition. House Bill 1314 paves the way for an equitable transition by creating a “Just Transition Office” responsible for determining the timing and location of mine and powerplant closures and the impact on workers, businesses, and coal transition communities and providing resources and benefits to coal transition workers including wage replacement and job training. CFI testified on this bill and worked with both the environmental and labor community to craft and support this important policy for Colorado workers. 

HB 19-1159 – Modify Innovative Motor Vehicle Income Tax Credits
Sponsors: Reps. Jaquez Lewis & Gray; Sen. Danielson

House Bill 1159 extends Colorado’s tax credit for new purchased or leased electric vehicles through 2025. The amount of the credit for passenger vehicles will be $2,500 in 2022 and $2,000 in 2023-2025 for passenger vehicles and $1,500 for leased vehicles.

Because the electric vehicle tax credit is only available to new purchased or leased vehicles, individuals who purchase pre-owned or used electric vehicles are not eligible to receive the credit. This creates more inequity in Colorado’s already “upside down” tax code. CFI is continuing to work with partners to increase the equity of this credit and make the credit more effective in building a robust EV market.

Right On: Bills to Help Housing Affordability(HB19-1118, SB19-180, SB19-225, HB19-1170)        

This legislative session, CFI continued our work with housing advocates to make significant advancements in renters’ rights and affordable housing in Colorado. First, we worked with partners on a bill to secure much needed tenant protections for renters across the state. As a top ten landlord friendly state, Colorado statutes overwhelmingly benefit landlords over tenants, making it increasingly difficult for Coloradans to stay in their homes, especially with skyrocketing rents. That’s why CFI signed on in support of HB19-1170, the Residential Tenants Health and Safety Act, to strengthen the state’s Warranty of Habitability statute.

CFI also testified in support of HB19-1118, Time Period to Cure Lease Violation and SB19-180, Eviction Legal Defense Fund, both of which would provide more support and resources for Coloradans facing eviction. Due to the great efforts of our housing partners at 9to5, Enterprise Community Partners, Colorado Coalition for the Homeless, and the Colorado Center on Law and Policy, the two bills passed and are on their way to the governor’s desk.

Finally, CFI testified in support of SB19-225, which would have repealed the state ban on rent control. Because housing issues vary widely across the state, CFI believes that local governments are best situated to make housing decisions that will benefit Coloradans in their respective communities. Unfortunately, SB19-225 died in the Senate, but advocates look forward to continuing this work and introducing the bill in future sessions.      

Far Out: Economic Security and Financial Equity Bills

SB 19-238 – Improve Wages and Accountability For Home Care Workers
Sponsors: Sens. Danielson & Moreno; Rep. Kennedy & Duran

CFI supported home healthcare and personal care workers through Senate Bill 238, a bill that will make sure more of the money that Medicaid pays service providers gets to the paychecks of workers. CFI wrote an issue brief analyzing personal care worker wages and testified about our findings in committee. 

SB 19-173 – Colorado Secure Savings Plan Board
Sponsors: Sens. Donovan & Pettersen; Reps. Kraft-Tharp & Hansen

This bill creates the Secure Savings Plan Board, which will oversee the completion of several studies of various retirement system options for Colorado’s private sector workers who do not currently have a way to save for retirement through their job. The Board will be comprised of seven people with financial and other expertise appointed by the Governor, and the State Treasurer. The studies will determine the feasibility of an automatic enrollment payroll deduction IRA system (also called an auto-IRA) and a small business retirement plan marketplace system, an analysis of the effects of greater retirement savings among Colorado residents, and an analysis of the effects of not establishing some kind of statewide retirement savings system for Colorado. The Board will be tasked with reviewing the results of these studies and making recommendations to the legislature about the best path forward.

SB19-002 – Regulate Student Education Loan Servicers
Sponsors: Sen. Winter & Maj. Leader Fenberg; Reps. Roberts & Jackson

Under current law, student loan servicers – companies that administers loans for borrowers – are unregulated. This bill creates a requirement that student loan servicers be licensed under the Uniform Consumer Credit Code. It also specifies which actions by a servicer are prohibited, and when violations of the law constitute a deceptive trade practice. SB19-002 also creates a student loan ombudsperson to help borrowers who run into problems with their loan servicers.

Fab Bills to Help Immigrant Communities

SB 19-139 – More Road and Community Safety Act Offices
Sponsors: Sens. Moreno & Coram; Reps. Galindo & Singer

Senate Bill 139 is the I-Drive coalition’s legislation to expand the number of motor vehicle offices that process licenses for undocumented immigrants from three to eight. This bi-partisan bill passed both chambers and sent to the Governor, who has indicated that he will sign it. The Long Bill, 2019-2020 budget, also contained a footnote that lifts the arbitrary cap on the number of licenses that can be issued under the program.

House Bill 19- 1124 – Protect Coloradans from Federal Government Oversight
Sponsors: Reps. Benavidez & Lontine, Sens. Foote & Gonzales

CFI also supported the Colorado Immigrant Rights Coalition’s main priority bill, Virginia’s Law, a bill that would designate public spaces like courts, hospitals and schools as safe spaces for immigrants from ICE operations. Unfortunately, Virginia’s Law never materialized as Democratic leadership in the House and Governor’s office signaled that they would not support it.
In place of a more comprehensive bill, CIRC brought forward House Bill 19-1124. This bill incorporated many of the enforcement priorities that would have been contained in Virginia’s Law, but was greatly diminished in order to win support from the governor and majority leadership. HB19-1124 now merely requires a judicial warrant for detaining an immigrant and requires probation officers to advise immigrants of their rights.

What a Drag: Bills We Opposed

SB19-055 – Reduce State Income Tax
Sponsors: Sen. Sonnenberg, Rep. Pelton
HB19-1097 – General Fund Reductions
Sponsor: Min. Leader Neville

Our issue brief on income tax reductions heavily shaped the debate around two bills coming from the Republicans and one from the Governor’s office that never materialized. Senate Bill 19-055 would have reduced the income tax rate from 4.63% to 4.49%. House Bill 19-1097 would have dropped the income tax to 4.25%. Both bills were defeated this session and CFI was the first to point out the inequities these types of plans exacerbate in the tax code. 

House Bill 19-1058 – Income Tax Benefits For Family Leave
Sponsor: Reps. Landgraf & Beckman, Sen. Priola

This bill would have created tax deferred savings accounts for paid leave and tax incentives to businesses that contribute to those accounts for their employees. Tax-preferred savings accounts and other tax breaks for paid family and medical leave are untargeted, inefficient giveaways that provide larger tax shelters and enhanced benefits to high income earners, while doing little to give average working families access to paid family and medical leave. These policies widen inequality, take resources from other general fund priorities, and do little to expand available resources for the benefit policymakers want to create. We were glad to see this bill fail in a House committee.

Referred Ballot Measures

HB 19-1257 – “De-Brucing”
Sponsors: Speaker Becker & Rep. McCluskie; Sens. Court & Priola

House Bill 1257 refers a ballot measure to voters in 2019 that would, if approved, allow the state to keep and use all the revenue it collects from all sources of revenue. Known as “de-Brucing,” this measure would align Colorado revenue policy with the policy in most states by allowing the legislature, rather than an arbitrary formula added to the state constitution nearly 30 years ago, to determine how to allocate revenue for state priorities. The revenue retained due to the proposed changes would be used for K-12, higher education, and roads, bridges, and transit.  And while HB 1257 is not a solution to the state’s fiscal woes, it is a necessary and logical step toward fiscal prudency. For our full analysis, click here. A companion bill with the same sponsors, HB19-1258, allocates where the money goes if voters decide to “de-bruce.”

HB 19-1333 – Cigarette Tobacco & Nicotine Products Tax
Sponsors: Rep. Caraveo; Sen. Fields

House Bill 19-1333 would have referred a measure to voters in 2019 to tax a broader set of nicotine products and increase excise tax rates on cigarettes and other tobacco products. The measure was projected to raise $317 million in revenue that would have been used to help fund new programs in health care and education.

If voters had approved HB19-1333, it would have been the first tax on E-cigarettes. The new tax was proposed to be 62% of the manufacture price.  The proposed tax rate for non-cigarette tobacco products would also have been 62%, an increase from the current 40% of manufacture price. For cigarettes, the proposed per-pack tax was $1.75, up from the current tax of $.84.

The heath care spending authorized in HB19-1333 includes money for prevention and cessation programs, efforts to reduce health insurance premiums and enhancements for child and youth behavioral health services. The education spending authorized would be used for Pre-K program enhancement including expansion of the Colorado Preschool program and for an expansion of out of school activities funding.

The bill narrowly passed the House but died on second reading in the Senate on the penultimate day of the Session.

HB19-1327 – Authorize and Tax Sports Betting
Sponsors: Maj. Leader Garnett & Min. Leader Neville; Sens. Donovan & Cooke

House Bill 19-1327 refers a measure to voters in 2019 to legalize sports betting in Colorado. If voters agree, the state would be authorized to issue licenses to casino license holders in Black Hawk, Central City and Cripple Creek. The measure would authorize a 10% tax on “Net Sports Betting Proceeds” (the revenue that the license holder makes after paying out winnings) that would be deposited in the Sports Betting Fund. 

The proposed tax is estimated to raise between $9.7 million to $11.2 million. The proceeds will be used for startup costs for the sports betting activities, operation of sports betting within the Division of Gaming, and a hold harmless requirement if other gaming tax funds are reduced due to sports betting. The bulk of the funds are to be used to contribute to the costs of implementing the State Water Plan. The bill passed the legislature and is awaiting the governor’s signature.

De-Brucing is the Least We Can Do

Posted April 23, 2019 by Colorado Fiscal Institute

By Carol Hedges

Although it was painfully slow at times, the economy has finally rebounded from the Great Recession. The discussions at the state capitol about funding public investments like K-12 education, transportation, and health care are full of words like “excess” and “surplus.” And yet, even with a slowdown on the horizon according to the most recent forecasts from state economists, Colorado isn’t able to fully take advantage of the best of times.

Confused yet? Colorado’s unique constitutional tax and budget constraints tend to have that effect on people.

You don’t need to be an economist to know the economy grows and contracts over time, and those ups and downs affect everything from the price of groceries to the number of available jobs. Those fluctuations also mean the government collects more money in taxes when the economy is healthy and less in taxes during recessions. But people still need public services supported by those tax dollars even when the economy is struggling. In fact, that need usually increases during economic downturns because more people are out of work and can’t make ends meet.

At the end of the day, the revenue increases generated in good economic times are the only resources available to offset the cuts that have to be made during bad times.

For most states, this is a problem, but a solvable one. During good times, investments increase to help offset cuts from bad times, and state reserves grow so the eventual cuts are less painful. But in Colorado, where an arbitrary formula added to the constitution 1992 determines how much revenue the state can keep, lawmakers find their hands tied.

The law embedded in the constitution to restrict spending and saving tax revenue during good times relies on a formula that neither reflects economic growth nor measures increases in the costs of providing the public services that help our communities thrive. Unfortunately, this is by design. The formula is intended to shrink government over time by limiting revenue when the economy is growing. This, despite the fact that the only time government can save for potential downturns is when the economy is growing.

Here’s a practical example of how recent economic cycles have affected Colorado’s budget: In FY 2009-2010, tax revenue fell by 13 percent. At the same time, the number of kids in Colorado schools went up 1.7 percent, the number of people on Medicaid went up by 14.2 percent, and the number of students enrolled in higher education went up 10 percent. Colorado’s population grew by over 76,000 people and the number of vehicles on our roads increase by 23,000. Because the state is required to produce a balanced budget every year, funding for public schools fell, funding for colleges and universities fell (causing tuition to rise), and the state postponed scheduled maintenance for highways. 

Thankfully, it’s now 2019, and state revenue is growing (this is reflected in the budget lawmakers passed and Gov. Polis signed last week). The growth in revenue is being used to pay back some of the cuts made to K-12 education, a tab that still amounts to over $600 million this year alone. New dollars appropriated for higher education will be enough to avoid additional tuition increases but they will not be enough to lower tuition. The state will invest more money in transportation, as it usually does when the economy is expanding, but it will barely make a dent in billions of dollars in backlogged projects. 

And still, despite these obvious and widely supported needs, over the last few years millions of dollars in revenue was rebated to taxpayers in one form or another. The state constitution prevents all the revenue collected during good times from being used to offset cuts or even save for the next downturn. In other words, we make our communities feel the brunt of bad times without the benefit of the good times.

Fortunately, a commonsense, bipartisan effort is moving forward in the legislature to give voters an opportunity to weigh in on whether it still makes sense to prevent ourselves from using all the revenue collected for critical investments. HB19-1257 and HB19-1258 will allow voters decide whether or not to invest that revenue in K-12 public schools, state colleges and universities, and transportation projects.

This effort (Sometimes called “de-Brucing”) would give the state the same authority voters in many local communities have already given their school boards, county commissioners, and city councils. Voters in most school districts, counties, cities and special districts have decided to eliminate the arbitrary cap on revenue like the one the state is still required to use.

Think about it like this: Without de-Brucing, when the next economic downturn arrives, state government will be like a worker who loses their job and is out of work for a while, but after finally finding a new job, they can only keep a portion of their income. That wouldn’t make sense for a worker and it doesn’t make sense for governments that work to support our communities.

One thing this proposal will not do, however, is result in full funding of our schools. It will not provide enough resources to allow our colleges to decrease tuition. Our state highways, bridges, and public transit systems will still need billions of new dollars to pay for every needed project. De-brucing is a small step we can take to keep schools, transportation, and higher education from falling even farther behind.

While de-brucing is not a silver bullet to take care of all the state’s fiscal woes, it is a necessary, prudent, and commonsense step towards more responsible fiscal policy. It will mean the state will have options during good economic times for how to deal with cuts that occur during bad economic times. It will mean the pool of money that can be used to offset cuts will not be artificially reduced. It will mean that the folks we elect to manage our public finances will have a bigger toolbox. It’s the least we can do.

Take action with CFI and ask your legislator to support HB19-1257 and HB19-1258 and take a necessary step in supporting our communities priorities. 

Take Action Today

Raise a glass with CFI at our 2019 Bars and Graphs

Posted April 17, 2019 by Caitlin Schneider

Colorado Counts #Census2020

Posted April 1, 2019 by Esther Turcios
“Everyone Counts in Colorado” by State Demography Office, DOLA

Today is April 1, which means you’ve probably already spent way too much time trying to figure out whether you’re reading an April Fool’s Day joke. Rest assured, you won’t find any pranks, put-ons, or practical jokes here. That’s because April 1 is also Census Day, and that means we’re officially one year away from the 2020 census. In case it’s been too long since you took civics, the US Constitution requires the federal government count every person living in the country every ten years – no matter their race, ethnicity, age, gender, status, political affiliation, or geographic location. Next year’s census will be the 24th since the first was taken in 1790, which found the entire US population was less than 4 million people.

Thanks to the census, we know the US population has now grown to nearly 330 million. But the census count determines a lot more than just knowing how many people live in the US. The census is also one of the most fundamental parts of our democracy. An accurate count helps guarantee that each state receives the appropriate number of seats in the House of Representatives, it influences how states draw their legislative districts, and equally as important, an accurate population count ensures we have the public investments that help our communities thrive. That’s because each state’s share of federal funding for everything from health care to transportation is determined by the census, including some of our most important tools for lifting families out of poverty.

Services that help struggling families put food on the table or see a doctor, like SNAP and Medicaid, don’t just help Coloradans make ends meet, they provide a stabilizing force for local economies during recessions. And programs that help ensure our students are successful in school, like the National School Lunch Program and Head Start, lay a strong foundation for future generations. The census determines funding for all of these programs and much more.

Unfortunately, the 2020 census is in jeopardy due to inadequate funding and an unprecedented and untested citizenship question. Not only has Congress instructed the Census Bureau not to spend more on the 2020 census than it did on the 2010 census (despite census costs doubling over the last twenty years), but the US Department of Commerce, which has authority over the Census Bureau, has proposed asking respondents whether or not they are US citizens. While the issue of whether this question will end up appearing on the 2020 census form is ultimately expected to be decided by the US Supreme Court, advocates for a fair and accurate census count worry it will push people away from participating.

These barriers threaten Colorado’s ability to ensure an accurate count of all people, particularly residents in “hard-to-count” communities, including immigrants, people of color, Coloradans who earn low incomes, Native Americans, Coloradans living in rural communities, people who speak and understand limited amounts of English, and many others. A report from the George Washington Institute for Public Policy found that just a 1 percent undercount in 2010 would have meant a loss of over $63 million per year for the state.

A recent analysis by CFI found that the state would need to invest $12 million to ensure that all Coloradans, including nearly 1.5 million hard-to-count people, are indeed counted. With as much as $800 billion in federal funding at stake, several states have appropriated funds and created Complete Count Committees (CCC) to ensure an accurate count in 2020.

Trusted CCCs are volunteer groups created by state and local governments, community groups, and/or organizations focused on increasing awareness of and participation in the census through “trusted community messengers.” A $12 million-dollar investment would allow the state to allocate resources to trusted organizations and community groups in each of the 64 counties based on each county’s share of the hard-to-count population. Lawmakers, informed by this research, have introduced HB19-1239, which will provide state grants to assist with complete count efforts.

The importance of the census cannot be understated. If we want to guarantee Colorado receives enough federal funding to ensure all of our diverse communities have the resources they need, then we have to properly invest in an accurate count in 2020. The state stands to benefit from, or lose out on, billions in federal dollars over the next ten years if we don’t act now and invest in census outreach efforts.

You don’t need to be a civics expert to see why a complete count is a big deal. If you want to make sure Coloradans are counted completely, accurately, and fairly, then take action today and urge legislators to invest in census advocacy efforts by voting yes on HB19-1239.

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