Colorado Needs The American Jobs Plan

By Pegah Jalali, environmental policy analyst

In 2020, the United States endured 22 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disasters at a cost of nearly $100 billion. These include damage from seven tropical cyclones, 13 severe storms, one drought and one wildfire. Closer to home, Colorado suffered $1.7 billion in costs from wildfires and drought. With climate change exacerbating the severity and frequency of these types of events, there will be a higher risk of roads washing out, streets getting flooded, air quality declining due to smoke from wildfires, and threats to food security from droughts. Decades of disinvestment in infrastructure has made our roads, bridges, and buildings vulnerable to extreme weather events. The 2021 winter storm in Texas that caused 70 deaths showed the power grid is also very vulnerable to extreme weather events.

Addressing climate change is also an economic and environmental justice priority. Low-wage workers and their families, a disproportionate number of whom are people of color, are the most likely to be harmed by the effects of climate change. They are more likely to live in areas with polluted air and water, or in urban areas where they lack access to green space and are exposed to increased heat in the summer. They are also less likely to have the financial resources to prepare for climate disasters and other related events.

The American Jobs Plan (AJP), proposed by the Biden-Harris administration earlier this year, would invest about $2 trillion in improving our country’s infrastructure and shifting to greener energy over the next eight years, and putting the country on track to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. The plan also targets investments to support infrastructure in the communities who face the greatest physical and financial threats from disasters driven by climate change.

Transportation

The transportation sector is the largest contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions—think carbon dioxide and methane—in the United States (transportation responsible for 29% of total emissions in the country). In 2020, transportation surpassed electricity generation as the largest source of pollution in Colorado. The American Jobs Plan proposes a $174 billion investment in electric vehicle (EV) incentives to shift away from combustion engine vehicles. The plan includes incentives like tax credits to purchase American-made EVs, building 500,000 EV charging stations across the US by 2030, and converting at least 20% of school buses from gas to electric. The plan would also replace 50,000 diesel transit vehicles.

The US market share of plug-in EV sales is only one-third the size of the Chinese EV market, so this investment will put the US in a more competitive position, while ensuring these vehicles are affordable for all families and manufactured by workers with good jobs. According to a study by the American Lung Association, transitioning to zero-emission transportation solutions along with increasing levels of renewable energy by mid-century will save thousands of lives, avoid tens of thousands of asthma attacks, and tens of billions of dollars in health costs as a result of significant pollution reductions.

In Colorado, people living in the Denver Metro Area disproportionately live near high-traffic areas and are exposed to higher noise and air pollution levels. Figure 1 shows the percentile rankings of Colorado census tracts with respect to traffic proximity and volume. The areas colored in orange are more exposed to traffic and its resulting pollutants compared to other areas of the state. Electrification of the transportation system reduces pollution from cars in this area. The AJP proposes $85 billion to modernize public transit with the goal of bringing buses, rapid transit, and rail services to underserved communities across the country. This investment will reduce traffic congestion.

Coloradans who take public transportation spend an extra 74.6% of their time commuting and households of color are 1.8 times more likely to commute via public transportation than white households.

Electricity generation

All climate models project that Colorado’s climate will warm substantially by 2050 if we fail to take action. This warming will drive longer, hotter, and more intense heat waves. Heat-related illnesses are the number one killer of people from natural disasters. Moreover, the urban heat island effect is an added environmental burden to low-income residents and people of color who are already living in communities with the most exposure to pollution.

Figure 2 shows a projection of the number of days each year by mid-century where the maximum temperature in an area exceeds the historic maximum temperature of that area (i.e., extreme heat conditions) under business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions. The figure shows that many areas will experience more than 100 days of extreme heat.

Climate change is projected to increase energy consumption in the US and Colorado as summer cooling needs are expected to grow faster than the decline in winter heating needs as a result of increasing temperatures. In 2020, record breaking wildfires in the West triggered by dry and hot conditions caused blackouts as demand for air conditioning increased. It is estimated that power outages cost the US economy up to $80 billion annually.

The American Jobs Plan will invest $100 billion to update the electric grid and make it more resilient to climate change. The US electric sector is the second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases nationwide (25% of total emissions). The AJP creates a “Energy Efficiency and Clean Electricity Standard,” a mandate that would require a portion of US electricity come from zero-carbon sources like wind and solar power. This will put us on the path to 100 percent carbon-free electricity by 2035.

Infrastructure resilience and restoration, and drought resilience

The AJP calls for $50 billion in dedicated investments to improve infrastructure resilience and protect and restore nature-based infrastructure – land, forests, wetlands, watersheds, and coastal and ocean resources. It will invest in protection from extreme wildfires, coastal resilience to sea-level rise and hurricanes, support for agricultural resources management and climate-smart technologies, and the protection and restoration of major land and water resources. The plan calls for a tax credit that has been proposed by both parties to help families and small businesses invest in disaster resilience. The plan also calls for a $10 billion investment in a new Civilian Climate Corps to conserve public lands and waters and strengthen resilience.

In Colorado, three of the largest wildfires in the history of the state occurred in 2020, burning more than 540,000 acres. Figure 3 shows the historical costs of wildfires and the areas burned in Colorado over the past five decades. The graph shows that wildfires have become significantly larger and costlier in the past 20 years.

Climate change is expected to make forests drier and more susceptible to fires in Colorado. Figure 4 shows projections for fire danger across the state by mid-century under business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions. In addition to a higher probability of wildfires, population growth in the wildland urban interface (WUI) has increased the likelihood of fire ignition caused by people and has made more communities vulnerable to the negative impacts of wildfires, as well as increasing costs from fires.

The AJP also proposes funding for western drought resilience efforts through investments in water efficiency and recycling, tribal water settlements, and dam safety. In Colorado, 2020 was the third-driest water year on record, trailing only 2002 (driest) and 2018 (2nd driest). By December 2020, over 90% of the state was at least in severe drought and over 27% ranked as exceptional drought.

During the last few decades, soils have become drier in most of the state, especially during summer. In future decades, summer precipitation and runoff are likely to decrease in Colorado, and droughts are likely to become more frequent and more severe (Avery et al., 2011). Dryland crops are entirely dependent on precipitation and are more susceptible to damage by droughts. Figure 5 shows how much less precipitation Colorado can expect by 2050 without taking action to curb the effects of climate change.

Drought also threatens Colorado’s outdoor tourism as less precipitation will fall as snow. The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that a 1.8° F increase in annual global temperatures will decrease snowpack by 20 percent in the Northern Hemisphere (IPCC 2007). Diminishing snowpack will shorten the length of the ski season and skiing in Colorado will become less reliable, leading to losses for the industry as the effects of climate change become more tangible (Williamson et al., 2008). Figure 6 shows the change in ski season length by mid-century under a business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Some areas will experience ski seasons that are up to 65 days shorter.

Abandoned wells and mines

Abandoned wells leak methane and create environmental and health risks by contaminating surface and ground waters. The EPA estimates there are about 1 million abandoned oil and gas wells across the country. In 2019, the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission reported 275 orphaned wells and 422 associated orphaned sites. The AJP proposes investing $16 billion towards plugging oil and gas wells and restoring and reclaiming abandoned coal, hardrock, and uranium mines. This will reduce Methane emissions and leaks from these wells while generating 250,000 union jobs.

Housing and buildings

Commercial and residential Buildings are responsible for 13% of total greenhouse gas emissions in the US. This is mainly due to fossil fuels burned for heat, the use of certain products that contain greenhouse gases, and the handling of waste.

The AJP proposes $213 billion in spending to build, modernize, and weatherize affordable housing which addresses both climate and economic justice issues. It will retrofit more than 2 million homes and commercial buildings to increase energy efficiency, with a focus on low-income communities and communities of color, and build and rehabilitate more than 500,000 homes for low- and middle-income homebuyers.

Climate and clean energy research and development

The plan calls for investing $35 billion in research and development efforts for technological solutions to address climate change. The plan also seeks to invest $15 billion in demonstration projects for “utility-scale energy storage, carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, advanced nuclear, rare earth element separations, floating offshore wind, biofuel/bioproducts, quantum computing, and electric vehicles, as well as strengthening US technological leadership in these areas in global markets.” Moreover, the plan proposes investing $46 billion of federal procurement spending toward the development of clean energy technologies to help meet the goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

Drinking water

Clean and safe drinking water should be a right for all communities. According to the Biden-Harris administration, “over the next 20 years, Colorado’s drinking water infrastructure will require $10.2 billion in additional funding.” The American Jobs Plan includes $111 billion in investments in water infrastructure, including $45 billion to eliminate lead pipes to make sure drinking water is safe. Replacing the pipes would reduce lead exposure in 400,000 schools and childcare facilities.

How is the AJP funded?

The AJP would raise the corporate income tax rate from 21% to 28%; increase the minimum tax on US corporations to 21% and calculate it on a country-by-country basis so it includes profits in tax havens; impose a 15% minimum tax on the income corporations use to report their profits to investors (“book income”); and make it harder for US companies to acquire or merge with a foreign business to avoid paying US taxes by claiming to be a foreign company.

Is this plan too costly?

As we think about the costs of climate provisions of the American Jobs Plan, we must also consider costs of inaction. Since 1980, the number of extreme weather-related events per year costing more than one billion dollars per event has increased significantly (accounting for inflation), and the total cost of these extreme events for the United States has exceeded $1.1 trillion. $890 billion of these costs have occurred in the last decade (2011-2020), and $600 billion over the last five years (2016-2020). From 2010 to 2020, Colorado has experienced 30 extreme weather events, costing the state up to $50 billion in damages.

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of certain extreme weather events, pollution from burning fossil fuels threaten the health of our communities, and rising temperatures pose a threat to our economy. It is absolutely essential that we invest in climate change mitigation and adaptation now to avoid these damages, protect the health of our people, and maintain the competitive position of the United States among industrial countries.

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References:

Averyt, K., et al., 2011. Colorado Climate Preparedness Project. https://dnrweblink.state.co.us/cwcb/0/doc/155088/Electronic.aspx?searchid=3f0c75c3-1e67-401e-9a54-82ddca9d9f31

IPCC, 2007. The physical science basis. Chapter 11: Regional climate projections. United Nations.

Williamson, S., Ruth, M., Ross, K., & Irani, D. (2008). Economic impacts of climate change on Colorado.